Last major update issued on March 25, 2014 at 04:50 UTC.
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March 16, 2014]
[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 23. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 402 and 524 km/s, weakly under the influence of a high speed stream from CH608.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 158.6 (decreasing 15.3 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 153.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.3). Three hour interval K indices: 20111110 (planetary), 21113311 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 325) and 13 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 230) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12008 [S12W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12010 [S13W25] decayed slowly and has a weak magnetic delta
structure in the southern part of the largest penumbra. An M class flare is possible.
Region 12012 [S14W12] regained a leader spot.
Region 12013 [N15W11] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12014 [S12E07] developed slowly early in the day. The region has polarity intermixing
and could produce a minor M
class flare.
Region 12015 [S13W55] has a weak magnetic
delta structure. A minor M class flare is possible.
Region 12016 [S27W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 12017 [N10E34] was quiet and stable.
New region 12018 [N03E39] emerged with several spots.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3226 [S09W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3248 [N01E15] was quiet and stable.
S3255 [S12E27] reemerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3261 [S12E70] rotated into view with penumbra spots.
New region S3262 [S10E42] emerged with penumbra spots.
March 24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
March 23: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the C5 LDE in AR
12014. The CME could reach Earth on March 26.
March 22: A partial halo CME was observed after the LDE in AR 12005, it
is uncertain if this CME has Earth directed extensions.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 25, there is a chance of unsettled intervals should the CME observed on March 22 reach Earth. Quiet to active conditions are possible on March 26 due to CME effects with quiet conditions likely on March 27.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12005 | 2014.03.11 2014.03.12 |
1 | N13W86 | 0080 | HAX |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| 12007 | 2014.03.13 2014.03.14 |
N11W75 | trailing part of AR 12005 | ||||||||
| 12008 | 2014.03.14 2014.03.15 |
2 | 1 | S07W61 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
SWPC has moved the region many degrees to the west real location: S12W43 |
||
| 12015 | 2014.03.15 2014.03.22 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S12W55 | 0060 | DAC | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta |
| S3226 | 2014.03.15 | 2 | S09W57 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 12010 | 2014.03.16 2014.03.17 |
22 | 53 | 32 | S14W27 | 0230 | DAC | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0320 location: S13W25 |
| S3233 | 2014.03.17 | S27W35 | plage | ||||||||
| 12012 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.18 |
4 | 1 | S09W23 | 0016 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S14W12 | ||
| 12013 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.18 |
1 | 8 | 3 | N15W11 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0025 |
| 12016 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.22 |
1 | 4 | 3 | S28W21 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0015 |
| S3237 | 2014.03.17 | S23W51 | plage | ||||||||
| 12014 | 2014.03.18 2014.03.19 |
16 | 61 | 30 | S13E08 | 0210 | ESC | ESC |
 |
 |
location: S12E07 area: 0420 |
| S3241 | 2014.03.18 | N14W39 | plage | ||||||||
| S3244 | 2014.03.19 | N17W24 | plage | ||||||||
| S3246 | 2014.03.19 | S02W54 | plage | ||||||||
| S3248 | 2014.03.20 | 6 | 2 | N01E15 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 12017 | 2014.03.21 2014.03.22 |
6 | 25 | 16 | N12E33 | 0130 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0260 |
| S3254 | 2014.03.21 | S02W33 | plage | ||||||||
| S3255 | 2014.03.22 | 2 | 2 | S12E27 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3256 | 2014.03.22 | S08E26 | plage | ||||||||
| S3259 | 2014.03.23 | S20E39 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 12018 | 2014.03.24 | 3 | 9 | 5 | N03E38 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
area: 0040 | |
| S3261 | 2014.03.24 | 2 | 1 | S12E70 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3262 | 2014.03.24 | 5 | 2 | S10E40 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 52 | 185 | 100 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 132 | 325 | 230 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 80 | 214 | 129 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 79 | 114 | 127 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 118.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 105.0 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 123.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 101.8 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 110.2 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 125.9 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | (72.8 projected, +3.8) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | (73.8 projected, +1.0) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | (72.7 projected, -1.1) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | (71.6 projected, -1.1) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 82.0 | (71.6 projected, 0.0) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.8 (cycle peak) | (70.9 projected, -0.7) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 150.3 (1) | 111.6 (2A) / 144.2 (2B) / 120.6 (2C) | (71.0 projected, +0.1) | (4.6) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
