Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 26, 2014 at 05:10 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update June 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update June 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update June 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update June 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update May 1, 2014)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 4, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 25. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 282 and 334 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 97.0 (decreasing 5.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 135.8. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 11211212 (planetary), 11222212 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 145) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 87) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12093 [S08W67] reemerged with several spots.
Region 12094 [S17W41] reemerged with trailing penumbra spots.
Region 12096 [N09E31] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12097 [N13E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 12098 [S07E06] displayed no major changes and was quiet.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3559 [S10W53] was quiet and stable. Strangely this is now AR 12093 for SWPC.
New region S3574 [N09E79] rotated into view with penumbra spots.
New region S3575 [S17E21] was observed with a penumbra spot.
New region S3576 [S27W05] emerged with a penumbra spot.

C2+ Flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR
       

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 23-25: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH623) was in an Earth facing position on June 23-24. Another trans equatorial coronal hole (CH624) could rotate into an Earth facing position on June 27.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on June 26 becoming quiet to unsettled on June 27-28 due to effects from CH623. Quiet conditions are likely on June 29 with unsettled intervals possible on June 30 due to weak effects from CH624.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12093 2014.06.15
2014.06.16
2 7 2 S11W53 0010 AXX CAO  

area: 0060

location: S07W67

SWPC is reporting AR S3559

12094 2014.06.15
2014.06.16
  1   S18W51         locaton: S17W41
S3558 2014.06.20       N15W49           plage
S3559 2014.06.21   4 2 S10W53 0012   AXX  
12096 2014.06.21
2014.06.22
3 17 8 N09E30 0120 CAO DAO

area: 0160

12097 2014.06.22 1 4 2 N12E35 0050 HSX CAO  
S3567 2014.06.22       S01W22           plage
S3568 2014.06.22       N13W42           plage
12098 2014.06.23
2014.06.24
6 18 12 S08E04 0060 DAO DRI

location: S07E06

S3574 2014.06.25   2   N09E79 0005   BXO    
S3575 2014.06.25   1   S17E21 0002   AXX    
S3576 2014.06.25   1 1 S27W05 0004   AXX    
Total spot count: 12 55 27  
Sunspot number: 52 145 87  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 27 73 45  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 31 51 48 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.02 104.3 101.8 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 110.2 57.9 57.5 (-0.9) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 125.9 72.4 57.9 (+0.4) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 134.3 78.7 59.9 (+2.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 (75.8 projected, +0.4) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 82.0 (76.4 projected, +0.6) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.8 (cycle peak) (76.2 projected, -0.2) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 92.2 (76.6 projected, +0.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 (75.8 projected, -0.8) 7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (73.2 projected, -2.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.9 (1)   92.0 (2A) / 110.4 (2B) / 76.0 (2C) (70.5 projected, -2.7) (7.1)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.