Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 14, 2014 at 04:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update June 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update June 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update June 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update June 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update May 1, 2014)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 4, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 330 and 361 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 152.7 (increasing 19.2 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 140.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.6). Three hour interval K indices: 11111222 (planetary), 20112412 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 251) and 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 193) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12080 [S12W77] developed further in the southern part and has a magnetic delta structure. This and AR 12085 could merge to create a very large region. A major flare is possible.
Region 12082 [N15W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12085 [S19W73] developed with new penumbral area forming as an extension of the northwestern part of the main penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 12087 [S18E31] decayed significantly and lost the magnetic delta structure. M flares are possible.
Region 12088 [S10W60] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12089 [N18W11] decayed and lost the magnetic delta structure.
Region 12090 [N25E42] was quiet and stable.
Region 12091 [S08W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12092 [S19E46] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3522 [S20W26] was quiet and stable.
S3532 [S36E17] wreemerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3536 [N11E24] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3537 [S19E01] emerged with a penumbra spot.

C2+ Flares (GOES):

Magnitude Time (UTC) Location AR
C8.5/1F 00:34 S19E45 12087
C9.9 03:39 S19W62 12085
C2.0 06:47 N18W01 12089
M2.6/1N 07:56 S18E40 12087
C3.8 09:18   12087
C3.7/1N 10:51 S18E39 12087
C2.5 12:02 N12W39 12082
C2.4 15:24 S19E38 12087
C2.1 16:19 S13W77 12080
C3.3 16:55 S19E55 12092
C9.0 20:17 S20E34 12087
C4.1 21:01 S19E38 12087

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 12: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the M3 LDE in AR 12085 late in the day.
June 11, 13
: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal hole are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 14-16.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12079 2014.05.31
2014.06.01
1     N12W94 0090 HSX     rotated out of view
12080 2014.06.02
2014.06.03
27 6 5 S11W78 0400 EKC DKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0680

12082 2014.06.04
2014.06.05
21 4 2 N15W67 0240 DAI CKO area: 0280

SWPC count does not match image

S3505 2014.06.05       S15W58           plage
12085 2014.06.05
2014.06.06
47 19 11 S20W71 0490 FKI EKC beta-gamma-delta

severe overcounting by SWPC?

12088 2014.06.06
2014.06.11
11 6 2 S10W60 0070 DAO CAO area: 0035
12089 2014.06.07
2014.06.11
11 20 14 N18E03 0060 DAI DRI

 

S3515 2014.06.07       S13W37         plage
S3516 2014.06.07       N22W15           plage
12086 2014.06.08 2     N01W32 0010 BXO       see AR S3535
S3522 2014.06.08   2 2 S20W26 0007   AXX  
12087 2014.06.09
2014.06.10
27 37 22 S18E30 0220 EAC DAC beta-gamma

area: 0350

S3524 2014.06.09       S16W10           plage
12090 2014.06.10
2014.06.11
4 6 3 N25E42 0170 DSO ESO area: 0200
12091 2014.06.11
2014.06.12
3 4 2 S09W17 0020 CRO CRO location: S08W14
12092 2014.06.11
2014.06.12
12 14 8 S19E46 0030 DRO CRI  
S3531 2014.06.11       S22E34           plage
S3532 2014.06.11   1 1 S36E17 0003   AXX    
S3535 2014.06.12       N01W31         plage
S3536 2014.06.13   1 1 N18W11 0004   AXX    
S3537 2014.06.13   1   S19E01 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 166 121 73  
Sunspot number: 276 251 193  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 222 175 127  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 166 88 106 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.02 104.3 101.8 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 110.2 57.9 57.5 (-0.9) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 125.9 72.4 57.9 (+0.4) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 134.3 78.7 59.9 (+2.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 (75.8 projected, +0.4) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 82.0 (76.4 projected, +0.6) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.8 (cycle peak) (76.2 projected, -0.2) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 92.2 (76.6 projected, +0.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 (75.8 projected, -0.8) 7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (73.2 projected, -2.6) 5.75
2014.06 136.4 (1)   57.9 (2A) / 133.6 (2B) / 85.9 (2C) (70.5 projected, -2.7) (7.8)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.