Last major update issued on July 8, 2014 at 05:50 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update July 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update July 1, 2014) ]
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[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 274 and 335 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 197.9 (increasing 31.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 137.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21122322 (planetary), 11112322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 19 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 386) and 18 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 292) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12102 [N14W49] decayed slowly and was mostly
Region 12103 [S14W72] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12104 [S12W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12106 [N15W33] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12107 [S19W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12108 [S07W12] still has a weak magnetic delta structure in the northwestern part of the large trailing penumbra and could produce a major flare.
Region 12109 [S08E07] displayed only minor changes. A major flare is still possible.
Region 12110 [S16W07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12111 [N06E24] was quiet and stable.
Region 12113 [N08E64] developed slowly and quietly. The region has minor polarity intermixing.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3609 [S13W32] was quiet and stable.
S3620 [N07W24] developed slowly and quietly.
S3621 [S21W37] was quiet and stable.
S3622 [S22E25] developed slowly and quietly.
S3623 [S18E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3625 [N06W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3626 [S08W68] decayed slowly and was quiet.
New region S3628 [S20E80] rotated into view.
New region S3629 [S07W27] emerged with a penumbra spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR|
July 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH626) was in an Earth facing position on July 5.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 8-9 with a chance of unsettled intervals due to possible effects from CH626. On July 10 quiet conditions are likely.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
SWPC has, for unexplicable reasons, moved AR 12103 to the location of AR
S3626, despite the existence of a spot in AR 12103
real location: S14W72
real location: S19W71
SWPC has moved AR 12112 to the location of AR 12103, see AR 12103 comment
|Total spot count:||87||196||112|
|Sunspot number:||197||386||292||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||132||262||178||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||118||135||161||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||81.8||(78.2 projected, +2.2)||5.44|
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||(79.7 projected, +1.5)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||91.9||(80.5 projected, +0.8)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(79.7 projected, -0.8)||7.88|
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(77.1 projected, -2.6)||5.75|
|2014.06||122.0||125.8||71.0||(74.5 projected, -2.6)||6.72|
|2014.07||182.7 (1)||44.4 (2A) / 196.6 (2B) / 98.2 (2C)||(71.5 projected, -3.0)||(4.3)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.