Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 7, 2014 at 04:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update July 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update July 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update July 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update July 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update July 5, 2014)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 4, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on July 6. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 273 and 307 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 201.0 (increasing 39.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 136.8. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.1). Three hour interval K indices: 10011001 (planetary), 11122312 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 24 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 557) and 20 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 359) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12100 [N10W66] was quiet and stable.
Region 12102 [N12W37] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12103 [S13W58] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12104 [S12W27] was quiet and stable.
Region 12106 [N16W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 12107 [S19W13] developed as new flux emerged to the south of the largest penumbra. An M class flare is possible.
Region 12108 [S07E02] developed further and has major flare potential. There is a weak magnetic delta structure in the northwestern part of the large trailing penumbra.
Region 12109 [S08E21] was mostly unchanged and has a magnetic delta structure in the eastern part of the largest penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 12110 [S16E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 12111 [N06E38] was quiet and stable.
Region 12112 [S17W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12113 [N09E78] rotated into view.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3609 [S14W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3614 [N06E47] was quiet and stable.
S3616 [S23W80] was quiet and stable.
S3618 [N17E42] was quiet and stable.
New region S3620 [N07W12] emerged with a few spots.
New region S3621 [S21W22] was split off from AR 12107.
New region S3622 [S21E37] was observed with a penumbra spot.
New region S3623 [S14E30] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3624 [N47W09] emerged at a high latitude with penumbra spots.
New region S3625 [N08W19] emerged with a few spots.
New region S3626 [S08W52] emerged with a few spots.
New region S3627 [N10W03] emerged with a penumbra spot.

C2+ Flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR
C4.0 00:25 S09E36 12109
C3.5 07:00 S06E15 12108
C2.9 08:16 S06E34 12109

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 4-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH626) was in an Earth facing position on July 5.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 7. On July 8-9 there is a chance of unsettled intervals due to possible effects from CH626.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12100 2014.06.25
2014.06.27
  2   N10W68 0003   AXX

 

12103 2014.06.26
2014.06.28
5 8 3 S13W58 0010 BXO DRO area: 0040
12102 2014.06.27
2014.06.28
6 9 3 N11W38 0020 CAO CRO

 

12104 2014.06.28 26 43 22 S12W28 0280 DKC DAC area: 0320
12107 2014.06.28
2014.06.29
9 31 12 S20W16 0250 EHI DHI images/AR_12107_20140706_2345.png images/AR_12107_20140705_2345.png beta-gamma

area: 0370

location: S19W13

S3590 2014.06.28       S23W29           plage
S3591 2014.06.28       S12W47           plage
12105 2014.06.28
2014.06.29
      S05W72           plage
12106 2014.06.29 5 31 10 N15W21 0120 CAO CAO area: 0160
12108 2014.06.30
2014.07.01
36 69 40 S08E02 0620 EKI DKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 1050

S3599 2014.06.30       N02W37         plage
12109 2014.07.01
2014.07.02
47 54 33 S08E21 0800 EKC EKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0900

S3607 2014.07.01       N12W45           plage
12110 2014.07.02
2014.07.03
6 20 10 S16E07 0010 BXO DRO area: 0030
S3609 2014.07.02   6 2 S14W13 0012   BXO  
12111 2014.07.03
2014.07.04
4 11 4 N06E39 0070 CAO CSO  
S3611 2014.07.04       S30W45           plage
12112 2014.07.04
2014.07.05
1 1   S19W57 0000 AXX AXX area: 0001
S3613 2014.07.04       N15W59           plage
S3614 2014.07.04   1 1 N06E47 0004   AXX  
S3615 2014.07.05       S04W28         plage
S3616 2014.07.05   1   S23W80 0003   AXX  
S3617 2014.07.05       N03W26         plage
S3618 2014.07.05   1   N17E42 0002   AXX  
12113 2014.07.06 1 2 2 N12E80 0050 HAX HAX   area: 0170

location: N09E78

S3620 2014.07.06   4 3 N07W12 0012   CRO    
S3621 2014.07.06   5 3 S21W22 0015   HRX    
S3622 2014.07.06   1 1 S21E37 0003   AXX    
S3623 2014.07.06   3 1 S14E30 0008   BXO    
S3624 2014.07.06   3 1 N47W09 0006   BXO    
S3625 2014.07.06   5 3 N08W19 0016   CRO    
S3626 2014.07.06   5 4 S08W52 0040   DRO    
S3627 2014.07.06   1 1 N10W03 0003   AXX    
Total spot count: 146 317 159  
Sunspot number: 256 557 359  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 201 388 230  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 154 195 197 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.02 104.3 101.8 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 110.2 57.9 57.5 (-0.9) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 125.9 72.4 57.9 (+0.4) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 134.3 78.7 59.9 (+2.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 (78.2 projected, +2.2) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) (79.7 projected, +1.5) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 (80.5 projected, +0.8) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 (79.7 projected, -0.8) 7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (77.1 projected, -2.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (74.5 projected, -2.6) 6.72
2014.07 180.2 (1)   38.0 (2A) / 196.5 (2B) / 96.6 (2C) (71.5 projected, -3.0) (3.8)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.