Last major update issued on July 5, 2014 at 07:30 UTC.
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[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update July 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update July 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update July 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update July 1, 2014)]
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[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 4, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 4. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 285 and 320 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 187.6 (increasing 50.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 135.4. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.9). Three hour interval K indices: 21222101 (planetary), 11222222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 496) and 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 288) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12100 [N10W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12102 [N12W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12103 [S11W29] reemerged with penumbra spots.
Region 12104 [S11W01] decayed slowly and lost the magnetic delta structure. An M class flare is still possible.
Region 12106 [N16E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12107 [S19E11] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. An M class flare is possible.
Region 12108 [S07E29] developed slowly and could produce M class flares.
Region 12109 [S08E48] developed further and has the potential to produce a major flare.
Region 12110 [S16E36] gained a few spots and was quiet.
New region 12111 [N06E65] rotated into view on July 3 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3599 [N03W00] lost the leader spots and gained trailing penumbra spots.
S3607 [N12W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3609 [S12E13] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3611 [S30W19] was observed with a penumbra spot.
New region S3612 [S18W26] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3613 [N15W33] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3614 [N05E73] rotated into view trailing AR 12111.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR|
July 2-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
July 4: A filament eruption near ARs 12102 and S3599 was observed late in the day. With no available LASCO or STEREO imagery it is difficult to tell whether this event resulted in a CME. If it did, the CME will likely be Earth directed.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH626) could rotate into an Earth facing position on July 5.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 5-7. On July 8-9 there is a chance of unsettled intervals due to possible effects from CH626. If a CME was produced by the filament eruption late on July 4 it could arrive at Earth late on July 7 or early on July 8.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||109||326||168|
|Sunspot number:||199||496||288||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||162||377||219||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||119||174||158||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||81.8||(78.2 projected, +2.2)||5.44|
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||(79.7 projected, +1.5)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||91.9||(80.5 projected, +0.8)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(79.7 projected, -0.8)||7.88|
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(77.1 projected, -2.6)||5.75|
|2014.06||122.0||125.8||71.0||(74.5 projected, -2.6)||6.72|
|2014.07||171.7 (1)||22.9 (2A) / 177.5 (2B) / 90.4 (2C)||(71.5 projected, -3.0)||(4.2)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.