Last major update issued on January 15, 2014 at 06:00 UTC.
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
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January 11, 2014]
[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 560 and 658 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH599.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 137.0 (decreasing 19.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 148.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.8). Three hour interval K indices: 33213212 (planetary), 32124432 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 15 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 236) and 14 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 192) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11948 [N05W40] was quiet and stable.
Region 11949 [S17W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 11950 [N16W23] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11952 [S32E37] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11953 [S18W24] was quiet and appears to be slowly decaying.
New region 11954 [N07W00] was first observed with spots on January 8 and
was numbered by SWPC 6 days later.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3011 [S17E13] was quiet and stable.
S3012 [N10E10] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
S3013 [N10W32] was quiet and stable.
S3014 [S09W13] was quiet and stable.
S3017 [S30E32] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S3021 [S14E78] rotated into view.
New region S3022 [S13E26] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3023 [S26W15] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3024 [N13E27] emerged with penumbra spots.
A filament eruption was observed in the northeast quadrant after 06:40 UTC. The associated partial halo CME probably does not have Earth directed extensions.
January 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 15-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11944 | 2013.12.31 2014.01.01 |
4 | S12W88 | 0140 | DAC |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| 11948 | 2014.01.05 2014.01.06 |
1 | 2 | 2 | N06W41 | 0070 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0140 |
| 11949 | 2014.01.07 2014.01.08 |
2 | 14 | 9 | S16W08 | 0110 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0280 |
| 11954 | 2014.01.08 2014.01.14 |
3 | 7 | 3 | N07W01 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| S3002 | 2014.01.08 | N10W59 | plage | ||||||||
| 11951 | 2014.01.09 2014.01.10 |
1 | 1 | S12W42 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11953 | 2014.01.09 2014.01.11 |
6 | 22 | 10 | S17W25 | 0070 | DAO | DAC |
 |
 |
area: 0150 |
| 11950 | 2014.01.09 2014.01.10 |
5 | 19 | 11 | N17W23 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| 11952 | 2014.01.10 2014.01.11 |
4 | 5 | 4 | S31E35 | 0070 | CSO | ESO |
 |
 |
location: S32E37 |
| S3009 | 2014.01.10 | N10W20 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3010 | 2014.01.10 | S32W34 | plage | ||||||||
| S3011 | 2014.01.11 | 3 | 3 | S17E13 | 0018 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S3012 | 2014.01.12 | 1 | N10E10 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S3013 | 2014.01.12 | N10W45 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3014 | 2014.01.12 | 4 | 3 | S09W13 | 0017 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3015 | 2014.01.12 | N15W40 | plage | ||||||||
| S3017 | 2014.01.13 | 3 | 2 | S30E32 | 0012 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S3018 | 2014.01.13 | N07W29 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3021 | 2014.01.14 | 1 | 1 | S14E78 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S3022 | 2014.01.14 | 1 | 1 | S13E26 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3023 | 2014.01.14 | 1 | 1 | S26W15 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3024 | 2014.01.14 | 2 | 1 | N13E27 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 25 | 86 | 52 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 95 | 236 | 192 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 50 | 115 | 81 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 57 | 83 | 106 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (65.4 projected, +2.8) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (67.8 projected, +2.4) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (70.1 projected, +2.3) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 85.6 | (70.0 projected, -0.1) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 77.6 | (68.1 projected, -1.9) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 90.3 | (67.4 projected, -0.7) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 178.0 (1) | 67.9 (2A) / 150.4 (2B) / 101.8 (2C) | (67.6 projected, +0.2) | (7.0) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
