Last major update issued on January 5, 2014 at 06:25 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update January 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update January 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update January 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update January 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update January 1, 2014)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated December 16, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 4. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 460 and 556 km/s under the weak influence of a high speed stream from CH598.
Solar flux measured at 18h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 213.3 (increasing 47.8 over the last solar rotation, the measurement at 20h was strongly influenced by a long duration M4 event). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 143.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11122221 (planetary), 11122231 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 13 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 351) and 9 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 200) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11937 [S13W56] developed further and could
produce C and minor M class flares.
Region 11938 [S15W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11941 [S13W77] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11942 [N10E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 11943 [S12E19] was mostly unchanged. C5+ flares: long duration M4.0 peaking at 19:46 UTC. This event occurred in the trailing polarity area and was probably triggered by interaction with AR 11944. A large and wide asymmetric full halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery.
Region 11944 [S09E37] is a large and complex region capable of producing major M and X class flares. A few small magnetic delta structures are observed, one is located in the northwestern part of the huge leading penumbra. C5+ flares: C5.6 at 06:40, M1.3/2N at 10:16, C9.4 at 15:41 UTC.
Region 11945 [N10W10] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11946 [N09E37] emerged early in the day.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S2983 [N21E52] was quiet and stable.
S2986 [S26E06] was quiet and stable.
New region S2988 [N20E21] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2989 [N00W15] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2990 [S09W18] emerged with penumbra spots.
AR 11936 produced an M1.9 flare at 22:52 UTC while at the southwest limb. This event may have been associated with a weak increase in proton flux levels.
January 2-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
January 4: A full halo CME was observed late in the day after the M4 event in AR 11943. This CME could reach Earth on January 7.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 5-6. On January 7 the CME observed late on January 4 could reach Earth and cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
rotated out of view
|Total spot count:||88||221||110|
|Sunspot number:||178||351||200||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||122||253||142||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||107||123||110||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
possible cycle 24 max
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(65.4 projected, +2.8)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.6||66.0||(67.8 projected, +2.4)||8.27|
|2013.09||102.6||36.9||(70.1 projected, +2.3)||5.23|
|2013.10||132.1||85.6||(70.0 projected, -0.1)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||77.6||(68.1 projected, -1.9)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||90.3||(67.4 projected, -0.7)||4.6|
|2014.01||178.9 (1)||18.7 (2A) / 144.8 (2B) / 96.5 (2C)||(67.6 projected, +0.2)||(10.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.