Last major update issued on February 8, 2014 at 07:05 UTC.
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[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 283 and 468 km/s. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 16:28 UTC.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 178.0 (increasing 11.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 149.8. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.9). Three hour interval K indices: 10111234 (planetary), 00122333 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 16 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 365) and 14 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 259) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11967 [S12W62] decayed further with the only
remaining interesting feature the large and complex trailing penumbra. The
contained magnetic delta structure could still cause a major flare.
C5+ flare: M2.0/2N at 04:56 UTC.
Region 11968 [N11W59] decayed slowly and
simplified magnetically.
C5+ flare: M1.9/1N at 10:29 UTC.
Region 11970 [S18W12] was quiet and stable.
Region 11971 [S13E14] was quiet and stable.
Region 11972 [S13W36] decayed and was quiet.
Region 11973 [N05E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 11974 [S11E48] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3073 [N21W61] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S3084 [S14W22 reemerged with many spots.
S3088 [S12W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3090 [N13W08] was quiet and stable.
S3092 [S08E13] was quiet and stable.
S3098 [S13E55] has weak polarity intermixing and could produce C flares.
New region S3099 [S28E12] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3100 [S15E88] rotated partly into view.
New region S3101 [S23W25] emerged with penumbra
spots.
February 5-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
February 7: A filament eruption late in the day to the west of a coronal
hole extension in the southwest quadrant may have produced an Earth directed CME,
however, available STEREO/LASCO imagery at time of analysis was insufficient to
determine any geoeffectivity.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH602) was in an Earth facing position on February 5-6.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active February 8-10 due to CME and coronal hole effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11967 | 2014.01.26 2014.01.27 |
52 | 32 | 21 | S13W64 | 1260 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0900 location: S12W62
|
| 11968 | 2014.01.27 | 56 | 43 | 22 | N13W59 | 0620 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0770 location: N11W59 |
| S3073 | 2014.01.29 | 2 | 1 | N21W61 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S3075 | 2014.01.29 | S12W35 | plage | ||||||||
| S3079 | 2014.01.31 | S09W48 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11970 | 2014.02.01 2014.02.02 |
1 | 5 | 1 | S17W16 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S18W12 |
| S3082 | 2014.02.01 | N07W03 | plage | ||||||||
| S3084 | 2014.02.02 | 15 | 11 | S14W22 | 0050 | DRI |
 |
||||
| 11972 | 2014.02.02 2014.02.05 |
6 | 3 | 3 | S12W40 | 0030 | CSO | BXO |
 |
 |
location:S13W36 area: 0018 |
| S3086 | 2014.02.02 | N09W50 | plage | ||||||||
| S3087 | 2014.02.02 | S28W57 | plage | ||||||||
| S3088 | 2014.02.03 | 1 | S12W41 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11971 | 2014.02.03 2014.02.04 |
19 | 32 | 19 | S12E12 | 0080 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0120 location: S13E14 |
| S3090 | 2014.02.03 | 3 | 2 | N13W08 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S3092 | 2014.02.04 | 6 | 3 | S08E13 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11973 | 2014.02.04 2014.02.05 |
11 | 26 | 13 | N05E37 | 0060 | DSO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0140 |
| 11974 | 2014.02.04 2014.02.05 |
26 | 12 | 8 | S13E51 | 0210 | ESC | DSO |
 |
 |
location: S11E48 area: 0180 see AR S3098 |
| S3096 | 2014.02.05 | N15E40 | plage | ||||||||
| S3098 | 2014.02.06 | 20 | 12 | S13E55 | 0120 | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma split off from AR 11974 |
||
| S3099 | 2014.02.07 | 2 | 2 | S28E12 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3100 | 2014.02.07 | 1 | S15E88 | 0220 | HAX |
 |
|||||
| S3101 | 2014.02.07 | 2 | 1 | S23W25 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 171 | 205 | 119 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 241 | 365 | 259 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 211 | 253 | 157 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 145 | 128 | 142 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 | |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) | 8.81 | |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 118.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 105.0 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 123.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 101.8 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 110.2 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 125.9 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | (67.8 projected, +2.3) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | (69.6 projected, +1.8) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | (69.3 projected, -0.3) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | (67.5 projected, -1.8) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | (66.7 projected, -0.8) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 (cycle peak) |
152.4 | 82.0 | (66.9 projected, +0.2) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 188.0 (1) | 48.5 (2A) / 194.1 (2B) / 104.8 (2C) | (65.9 projected, -1.0) | (4.9) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
