Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 4, 2014 at 05:45 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update December 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update December 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update December 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update December 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update December 3, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated November 22, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 3. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 409 and 568 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 154.2 (increasing 18.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 151.7 - the highest since May 2, 2014). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.9). Three hour interval K indices: 21021222 (planetary), 32121232 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 260) and 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 156) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12217 [S15W67] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. The region has polarity intermixing.
Region 12218 [N17W49] was quiet and stable.
Region 12221 [N05W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12222 [S19W24] lost spots and but could still produce an M class flare.
Region 12224 [S23W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 12225 [S15E22] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 12226 [S19W47] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12227 [S03E60] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4042 [S05W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
S4047 [N14E44] was quiet and stable.
New region S4050 [N09W02] emerged with a few spots.
New region S4052 [N14W63] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S4053 [S08E12] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S4054 [S06E76] rotated into view with a penumbra spot.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C2.5 01:02 S20W06 12222  
C2.4 02:34 S16W54 12217  
C3.1 09:34 S21W12 12222  
C2.7 13:10   12222  
C3.8 13:26   12222  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 1-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 4-6.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12217 2014.11.22
2014.11.23
9 9 5 S17W63 0150 DAI DRO beta-gamma

location: S15W67

area: 0050

S4020 2014.11.23       N15W57           plage
12218 2014.11.23 1 4 2 N17W51 0130 HSX CSO

 

12221 2014.11.25
2014.11.26
9 19 9 N05W26 0030 CRO BXI  
12222 2014.11.26 22 40 24 S19W24 0570 EKC EKC beta-gamma

area: 0800

12224 2014.11.26
2014.11.28
  2 1 S24W41 0005   BXO location: S23W33
12226 2014.11.27
2014.12.01
13 18 8 S18W48 0090 CAI DRI

area: 0050

S4042 2014.11.27   1   S05W38 0002   AXX  
12225 2014.11.29
2014.11.30
3 18 12 S17E17 0010 BXO CRI location: S15E22

area: 0060

S4045 2014.11.30       N24W48            
12227 2014.12.02 1 2 2 S05E59 0110 HSX HSX location: S03E60

area: 0190

S4047 2014.12.02   1   N14E44 0002   AXX  
S4048 2014.12.02       N08E52         plage
S4049 2014.12.02       S09W01         plage
S4050 2014.12.03   3 3 N09W02 0020   CRO    
S4052 2014.12.03   1   N14W63 0002   AXX    
S4053 2014.12.03   1   S08E12 0002   AXX    
S4054 2014.12.03   1   S06E76 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 58 120 66  
Sunspot number: 128 260 156  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 91 152 99  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 77 91 86 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 80.5 (-1.4) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (79.1 projected, -1.6) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (77.5 projected, -1.6) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (75.1 projected, -3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.9 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.5 projected, -2.4) 8.96
2014.11 154.8   70.1 (67.7 projected, -1.8) 8.9
2014.12 163.3 (1)   14.0 (2A) / 144.7 (2B) / 92.4 (2C) (66.0 projected, -1.7) (8.4)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.