Last major update issued on April 21, 2014 at 06:50 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 2, 2014)]
[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated April 17, 2014]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on April 21. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 524 and 968 km/s. The CME associated with the M7 flare on April 18 was observed at SOHO at 10:46 UTC (solar wind increase, solar wind density increased at 10:20 UTC).
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 162.5 (increasing 3.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 154.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.9). Three hour interval K indices: 32145444 (planetary), 32134434 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 380) and 17 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 276) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12033 [N11W84] was mostly quiet and stable.
SWPC attributed the largest flare of the day to this region, however, the flare
location appears to have been in AR 12032, just behind the northwest limb.
Region 12034 [N04W67] developed in the southwestern section and produced low level C flares.
Region 12035 [S16W43] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12036 [S18W67] decayed, however, there is a weak magnetic delta structure in the leading spot section. An M flare is possible.
Region 12037 [S09W70] decayed slowly and lost the trailing spots.
Region 12038 [S11W04] was quiet and stable.
Region 12040 [N17W41] decayed and could soon become spotless.
Region 12042 [N18E13] was quiet and stable.
Region 12044 [S21E41] was quiet and stable.
Region 12045 [S23E62] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3323 [S14W25] was mostly quiet and stable.
S3339 [N07E20] was quiet and stable.
New region S3343 [S09E12] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S3344 [S18E37] emerged to the northwest of AR 12044.
New region S3345 [N10E48] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S3346 [N04W06] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3347 [S11W48] emerged quickly with several spots to the northwest of AR 12035.
April 19-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
April 18: A filament eruption began just after 09h UTC to the south of AR 12036 and extended towards another center to the south of AR S3323 and appears to have been associated with a halo CME. The M8 flare after noon in AR 12036 was associated with a full halo CME which reached Earth on April 20.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on April 21 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on April 22 becoming quiet on April 23.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||102||210||106|
|Sunspot number:||192||380||276||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||150||264||160||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||115||133||152||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.10||132.1||131.2||85.6||(75.3 projected, +2.1)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||145.1||77.6||(76.3 projected, +1.0)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(77.3 projected, +1.0)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(78.3 projected, +1.0)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(78.1 projected, -0.2)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(78.5 projected, +0.4)||4.88|
|2014.04||151.0 (1)||98.6 (2A) / 148.0 (2B) / 110.8 (2C)||(77.7 projected, -0.8)||(7.9)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.