Last major update issued on October 2, 2013 at 04:30 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update September 5, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated September 24, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 272 and 410 km/s. A weak low speed stream associated with CH588 was the dominant solar wind source during the latter half of the day. A significant disturbance reached SOHO at 01:23 UTC on October 2, the arrival of the Sept.29 CME. The interplanetary magnetic field has since then at times been strongly southwards.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 106.8 (decreasing 2.4 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 113.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.6). Three hour interval K indices: 10102122 (planetary), 01113222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 5 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 91) and 4 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 60) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11854 [N04E19] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11855 [S12E02] merged with AR S2725 and developed further. C flares are possible.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2710 [N16W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2726 [S07E82] rotated into view.
New region S2727 [N08E82] rotated into view.
September 30 - October 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
September 29: A large full halo CME was observed after a filament eruption late in the day.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to severe storm on October 2 due to CME effects. Quiet to active conditions are likely on October 3 becoming quiet on October 4-5.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
rotated out of view
|S2725||2013.09.30||S14E03||merged with AR 11855|
|Total spot count:||19||41||20|
|Sunspot number:||49||91||60||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||34||59||38||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||29||32||33||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
likely cycle 24 max
|2013.04||124.8||72.4||(56.2 projected, -1.3)||5.40|
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(55.8 projected, -0.4)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(56.0 projected, +0.2)||12.60|
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(56.1 projected, +0.1)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.6||66.0||(55.9 projected, -0.2)||8.27|
|2013.09||102.6||36.9||(55.4 projected, -0.5)||5.29|
|2013.10||106.8 (1)||1.6 (2A) / 49( 2B) / 37.5 (2C)||(53.9 projected, -1.5)||(4.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.