Last major update issued on November 15, 2013 at 05:55 UTC.
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 337 and 393 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 175.8 (increasing 35.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 123.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00010011 (planetary), 00022211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B9 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 15 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 378) and 12 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 234) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11890 [S12W79] rotated partly out of view.
Region 11893 [S13W11] developed further and could produce C and minor M
class flares.
Region 11895 [S20E23] decayed slowly losing spots and penumbral area.
There is a weak magnetic delta structure in a central penumbra. M class flares are possible.
Region 11896 [N10E22] was quiet and stable.
Region 11898 [S27W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11899 [N05E49] has a large main penumbra and has gained several
small spots. There is polarity intermixing and a chance of a major flare. The
region produced a minor M class flare arly on November 15.
New region 11900 [S20W14] emerged on November 12 and was numbered by SWPC
2 days later. The region developed quickly and has the most significant magnetic
delta on the visible disk in a central penumbra. M flares are possible.
New region 11901 [S24W42] emerged on November 10 and got its NOAA number
4 days later.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2828 [S16E38] was quiet and stable.
S2830 [N18E08] developed slowly and quietly.
S2831 [N18W35] was quiet and stable.
New region S2832 [S30W07] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2833 [S10W40] emerged with a penumbra
spot.
New region S2834 [N10E42] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2835 [N01E33] emerged with a penumbra spot.
There is a significant chance that November will become the month with the highest solar flux average recorded during cycle 24, two weeks into the month the average SF is higher than that of November 2011.
November 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH594) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on November 12-13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 15-16 due to effects from CH594. Quiet conditions are likely on November 17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11890 | 2013.11.01 2013.11.02 |
3 | 2 | 1 | S12W83 | 0090 | EAO | AXX |
 |
 |
|
| 11892 | 2013.11.06 | S05W51 | plage | ||||||||
| 11893 | 2013.11.07 2013.11.08 |
22 | 35 | 19 | S13W10 | 0240 | DSI | DSC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0380 |
| S2816 | 2013.11.07 | S19W53 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11898 | 2013.11.08 2013.11.11 |
5 | 5 | 2 | S26W25 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| S2820 | 2013.11.08 | N21W59 | plage | ||||||||
| 11895 | 2013.11.09 2013.11.10 |
2 | 87 | 48 | S17E10 | 0160 | HAX | FSC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0500 location: S20E23 includes AR 11897 |
| 11896 | 2013.11.10 | 2 | 4 | 2 | N11E20 | 0160 | HAX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N10E22 area: 0260 |
| 11901 | 2013.11.10 2013.11.14 |
3 | 12 | 6 | S24W43 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| 11897 | 2013.11.11 | 87 | S21E26 | 0310 | FKC | magnetically part of 11895 | |||||
| 11899 | 2013.11.12 | 10 | 32 | 14 | N07E50 | 0630 | DKI | DKO |
 |
 |
area: 0900 |
| S2828 | 2013.11.12 | 3 | 2 | S16E38 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11900 | 2013.11.12 2013.11.14 |
10 | 31 | 14 | S19W17 | 0030 | DSO | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0150 |
| S2830 | 2013.11.13 | 11 | 4 | N18E08 | 0025 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2831 | 2013.11.13 | 2 | 1 | N18W35 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2832 | 2013.11.14 | 1 | S30W07 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2833 | 2013.11.14 | 1 | 1 | S10W40 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S2834 | 2013.11.14 | 1 | N10E42 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2835 | 2013.11.14 | 1 | N01E33 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 144 | 228 | 114 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 234 | 378 | 234 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 189 | 261 | 147 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 140 | 132 | 129 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possibe cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.8 (-1.1) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.2 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (59.3 projected, +1.4) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (59.7 projected, +0.4) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (60.0 projected, +0.3) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (60.3 projected, +0.3) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (60.2 projected, -0.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 85.6 | (58.7 projected, -1.5) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 153.9 (1) | 63.7 (2A) / 136.4 (2B) / 89.4 (2C) | (56.6 projected, -2.1) | (6.5) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
