Last major update issued on May 17, 2013 at 05:35 UTC.
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[Presentation
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on May 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 347 and 552 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 144.7 (increasing 45.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 12.8). Three hour interval K indices: 33213423 (planetary), 33223423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B6 level.
At 15h UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11743 [N21W40] was quiet and stable
Region 11744 [N05W24] decayed slowly and quietly. As there is polarity
intermixing there's a chance of C class flaring.
Region 11745 [N12E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11746 [S29E01] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11747 [S19W04] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11748 [N11E38] still has a magnetic delta structure in the leading
penumbral structure and occaisonal M or X class flares are possible. C5+ flares:
M1.3/1N at 21:53 UTC.
Region 11749 [S22W51] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11750 [S10W26] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11751 [S24E13] was quiet and stable.
New region 11752 [N17W25] emerged on May 15 and was numbered the next day
by SWPC.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2419 [S17E37] was quiet and stable.
S2420 [S12W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2424 [S28E26] emerged with penumbra spots.
May 14: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the X3 event in AR
11748.
May 15: A wide CME was observed after the X1 event in AR 11748.
May 16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH570) was in an Earth facing position on May 13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on May 17-18 due to CME effects and quiet on May 19.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11741 | 2013.05.05 2013.05.06 |
S21W71 |
 |
plage |
|||||||
| 11742 | 2013.05.07 2013.05.09 |
N28W45 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11743 | 2013.05.08 2013.05.09 |
6 | 6 | 2 | N22W40 | 0080 | CSO | ESO |
 |
 |
|
| 11744 | 2013.05.08 2013.05.09 |
18 | 29 | 11 | N05W27 | 0120 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| 11745 | 2013.05.10 | 20 | 48 | 15 | N12W01 | 0350 | CKI | CKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| 11746 | 2013.05.10 2013.05.11 |
10 | 20 | 8 | S27W01 | 0250 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0280 location: S29E01 |
| 11747 | 2013.05.12 | 10 | 22 | 8 | S17W05 | 0100 | CAO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0170 |
| 11751 | 2013.05.12 2013.05.15 |
6 | 9 | 6 | S23E09 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0025 |
| S2412 | 2013.05.12 | S44W25 | plage | ||||||||
| 11748 | 2013.05.13 | 19 | 35 | 18 | N12E36 | 0270 | DKI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N11E38 |
| S2414 | 2013.05.13 | N20W27 | plage | ||||||||
| S2415 | 2013.05.13 | S24W26 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11749 | 2013.05.13 2013.05.15 |
6 | 15 | 5 | S22W53 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11750 | 2013.05.14 2013.05.15 |
8 | 9 | 4 | S11W13 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| S2418 | 2013.05.14 | S43W09 | plage | ||||||||
| S2419 | 2013.05.14 | 1 | S17E37 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S2420 | 2013.05.15 | 2 | S13W12 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S2421 | 2013.05.15 | S17W16 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2422 | 2013.05.15 | S17W31 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11752 | 2013.05.15 2013.05.16 |
9 | 19 | 7 | N18W28 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
area: 0080 location: N17W25 |
|
| S2424 | 2013.05.16 | 3 | S28E26 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 112 | 218 | 84 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 212 | 348 | 184 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 160 | 252 | 128 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 127 | 122 | 10| | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle max) | 96.7 (cycle max) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.1 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.0) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | (59.1 projected, +0.5) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | (58.4 projected, -0.7) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (58.0 projected, -0.4) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | (58.2 projected, +0.5) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | (57.8 projected, -0.4) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (57.4 projected, -0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 140.5 (1) | 74.8 (2A) / 140.5 (2B) / 78.0 (2C) | (57.5 projected, +0.1) | (7.52) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
