Last major update issued on March 5, 2013 at 05:15 UTC.
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[Presentation
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 4. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 354 and 440 km/s. A transition to a low speed stream from CH557 was observed near 01h UTC at SOHO.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 114.3 (increasing 10.8 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.0). Three hour interval K indices: 31111001 (planetary), 22122211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11681 [N17W26] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11682 [S19W83] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11683 [S16E16] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11685 [S16E36] gained spots and was quiet.
Region 11686 [S13W46] developed further and had a small magnetic delta
structure in the northern part of a central penumbra at the end of the day. C
flares are possible.
Region 11687 [N08E55] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11689 [S18E68] rotated into view on March 3 and got its NOAA
number the next day.
March 2-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH557) was in a geoeffective position on March 1. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH558) was in an Earth facing position on March 3.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 5-7 due to effects from CH557 on March 5 and from CH558 on March 6-7. Quiet conditions are likely on March 8.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11682 | 2013.02.21 2013.02.25 |
3 | 2 | 2 | S19W81 | 0100 | DAO | CSO |
 |
 |
|
| 11680 | 2013.02.24 2013.02.25 |
S28W55 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11681 | 2013.02.24 2013.02.25 |
3 | N17W35 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0007 location: N17W26 |
||
| 11686 | 2013.02.26 2013.03.03 |
6 | 18 | 11 | S13W46 | 0040 | DSO | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0150 |
| 11683 | 2013.02.27 | 15 | 15 | 8 | S16E17 | 0100 | DAI | DAO |
 |
 |
|
| S2261 | 2013.02.27 | S10W16 | plage | ||||||||
| 11685 | 2013.02.28 2013.03.01 |
2 | 15 | 9 | S14E30 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 location: S16E36 |
| 11684 | 2013.03.01 | N17W29 |
part of AR 11681 should be deleted |
||||||||
| S2264 | 2013.03.01 | S18W01 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11687 | 2013.03.02 2013.03.03 |
3 | 4 | 3 | N06E50 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N08E55 |
| S2266 | 2013.03.02 | N09W32 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11688 | 2013.03.03 | 2 | S15E37 | 0020 | HSX | part of AR 11685, region should be deleted | |||||
| 11689 | 2013.03.03 2013.03.04 |
2 | 6 | 3 | S18E79 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| S2268 | 2013.03.03 | S33E02 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| Total spot count: | 33 | 63 | 36 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 103 | 133 | 96 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 53 | 84 | 57 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 62 | 47 | 53 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle max) | 96.7 (cycle max) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
| 2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.1 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | (57.9 projected, -0.2) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | (57.0 projected, -0.9) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.4 | (56.1 projected, -0.9) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | (54.9 projected, -1.2) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (53.6 projected, -1.3) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | (52.5 projected, -1.1) | 5.48 |
| 2013.03 | 112.5 (1) | 12.8 (2A) / 99.0 (2B) / 42.7 (2C) | (51.5 projected, -1.0) | (14.69) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
