Last major update issued on August 31, 2013 at 04:40 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update August 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update August 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
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[POES auroral activity level since October
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[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 30. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 322 and 411 km/s. A low speed stream from CH582 began influencing the field after 10h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 107.5 (increasing 0.2 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.6). Three hour interval K indices: 00122224 (planetary), 10222324 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11834 [N13W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 11835 [S09E01] was quiet and stable.
Region 11836 [N11E33] developed new spots in the eastern part. C5+ flare: C8.3/1F long duration event peaking at 02:46 UTC. This event was associated with an asymmetric full halo CME.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2639 [S11W13] was quiet and stable.
S2643 [N03W14] was quiet and stable.
New region S2646 [S14E67] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2647 [S14E32] emerged with one spot.
New region S2648 [N42E60] emerged with a penumbra spot at a high latitude.
August 28-29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
August 30: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the LDE in AR 11836 early in the day. The CME will likely reach Earth during the latter half of September 1 or early on September 2.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH582) in the northern hemisphere rotated across the central meridian on August 27. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH583) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on August 31 and September 1.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 31 due to effects from CH582. The CME observed on August 30 could reach Earth on September 1-2 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
SWPC/USAF location way off for sixth consecutive day
|Total spot count:||32||80||33|
|Sunspot number:||62||160||93||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||45||96||49||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||37||56||51||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
likely cycle 24 max
|2013.02||104.3||38.0||(57.8 projected, -0.9)||6.11|
|2013.03||111.3||57.9||(57.3 projected, -0.5)||10.56|
|2013.04||124.8||72.4||(57.3 projected, 0.0)||5.40|
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(57.3 projected, 0.0)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(57.6 projected, +0.3)||12.60|
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(57.7 projected, +0.1)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.9 (1)||88.3 (2A) / 91.2 (2B) / 59.7 (2C)||(57.6 projected, -0.1)||(7.76)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.