Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 16, 2013 at 04:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 7, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 4, 2013)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated March 24, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on April 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 355 and 550 km/s under the influence of weak CME effects. The stream associated with the CME ended just after 18h UTC.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 113.3 (increasing 2.9 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5). Three hour interval K indices: 11101032 (planetary), 11111232 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11719 [N09W50] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11721 [S18W33] developed slowly as it acquired the leader spot of AR 11722.
Region 11722 [S20W21] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11723 [S18E22] developed further and has polarity intermixing. Further C class flaring is likely.
Region 11724 [S26E47] quietly gained a few spots.

Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2354 [N10E05] decayed. What appears as one spot in 2K res. is actually 3 tiny spots in 4K res.
New region S2356 [S13E26] emerged to the north of AR 11723.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH565) was in an Earth facing position on April 14, CH565 decreased in size on April 13-14 and closed on April 15.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on April 16-17 possibly becoming quiet to unsettled on April 18 due to weak effects from CH565.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11717 2013.04.05       S12W71          

plage

11718 2013.04.05 4     N20W84 0110 DAI    

 

11719 2013.04.05 4 10 1 N09W53 0070 CSO CSO

location: N09W50

 

11721 2013.04.09
2013.04.10
12 16 10 S18W33 0140 ESI DAO beta-gamma
11722 2013.04.09
2013.04.10
5 10 5 S21W24 0030 CAO CAO location: S20W21
S2350 2013.04.11       S24E20           plage
11724 2013.04.12
2013.04.13
2 8 4 S27E44 0060 HAX CAO location: S26E47
11723 2013.04.12
2013.04.13
12 36 16 S18E20 0180 DAC DAC area: 0270

location: S18E22

S2353 2013.04.12       N17W18         plage
S2354 2013.04.13   1   N10E05 0002   BXO  
S2355 2013.04.14       S05W29         plage
S2356 2013.04.15   2 2 S13E26 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 39 83 38  
Sunspot number: 99 153 98  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 69 108 63  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 59 54 54 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.11 153.5 (cycle max) 96.7 (cycle max) 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
possible cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 66.8 (-0.1) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 64.6 (-2.2) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 61.7 (-2.9) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 58.9 (-2.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 57.7 (-1.2) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.0 58.1 (+0.4) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.4 58.1 (-0.0) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 (57.6 projected, -0.5) 9.97
2012.11 121.3 61.8 (56.9 projected, -0.7) 7.08
2012.12 108.6 40.8 (55.7 projected, -1.2) 3.44
2013.01 127.1 62.9 (54.3 projected, -1.4) 4.69
2013.02 104.3 38.0 (53.3 projected, -1.0) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 57.9 (52.2 projected, -1.1) 10.56
2013.04 131.3 (1) 62.3 (2A) / 124.7 (2B) / 57.9 (2C) (51.0 projected, -1.2) (4.02)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.