Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on September 29, 2012 at 05:55 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update September 8, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update September 2, 2012) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update September 8, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update September 8, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update September 3, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated September 8, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on September 28. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 288 and 380 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 137.8 (decreasing 7.8 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 0.9). Three hour interval K indices: 00100000 (planetary), 11011210 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11575 [N07W60] decayed significantly and was quiet.
Region 11576 [S23W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11577 [N08W41] developed slowly and could become an interesting region as there is polarity intermixing.
Region 11579 [S10E19] added many small spots and has polarity intermixing. At least C flares are possible.
Region 11580 [N17E31] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11581 [N21W43] lost the spots from the previous days and gained tiny leader spots.
Region 11582 [S12E43] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1929 [N08W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
S1936 [N07W08] was quiet and stable.
S1943 [N18E12] was quiet and stable.
S1947 [N12W62] developed further and could produce C flares.
S1949 [S25W20] lost the spot from the previous day and gained another further north.
New region S1950 [N18W09] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

September 26-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
September 28: A CME was observed in STEREO imagery early in the day following the long duration C3.7 event late on Sept.27. This CME will likely reach Earth on September 30.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 29. The CME observed early on Sept.28 will likely reach Earth on Sept.30 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on October 1.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11575 2012.09.17
2012.09.18
6 2 1 N08W60 0100 HSX HAX

area: 0160

11576 2012.09.18
2012.09.19
1 2 1 S21W47 0000 AXX BXO location: S23W43
11581 2012.09.19
2012.09.25
  2   N22W38 0000   AXX

location: N21W43

S1929 2012.09.21   4 2 N08W23 0000   BXO  
11577 2012.09.22 4 21 8 N08W41 0010 BXO CRI area: 0040
S1933 2012.09.22       N18W54           plage
11579 2012.09.23
2012.09.24
3 16 5 S09E20 0200 CSO CHO area: 0340
S1936 2012.09.23   7 2 N04W08 0000   AXX  
11578 2012.09.24       N21W45           plage
S1937 2012.09.24       S22E16           plage
11580 2012.09.24
2012.09.25
2 5 1 N19E28 0000 AXX  BXO location: N17E31
S1940 2012.09.24       N28W31           plage
11582 2012.09.25
2012.09.26
1 4 1 S12E42 0280 HHX CHO area: 0440
S1943 2012.09.26   3   N18E12 0000   BXO  
S1944 2012.09.26       N17W51         plage
S1946 2012.09.27       S12W15         plage
S1947 2012.09.27   8 5 N12W62 0070   DAO  
S1948 2012.09.27       N25W66         plage
S1949 2012.09.27   1   S25W20 0000   AXX  
S1950 2012.09.28   1   N18W09 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 17 76 26  
Sunspot number: 77 206 116  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 37 109 59  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 46 72 64 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.05 95.8 41.5 47.6 (+5.8) 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.8 57.2 (+4.0) 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 59.0 (+1.8) 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 59.5 (+0.5) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4) 8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 (67.3 projected, +0.4) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 (66.5 projected, -0.8) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 (64.4 projected, -2.1) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 (63.6 projected, -0.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 (64.6 projected, +1.0) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.1 (67.2 projected, +2.6) 7.96
2012.09 122.0 (1)  78.2 (2A) / 83.8 (2B) / 62.4 (2C) (70.0 projected, +2.8) (8.63)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number month to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.