Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on September 9, 2012 at 06:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update September 8, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update September 2, 2012) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update September 8, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update September 8, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update September 3, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated September 8, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on September 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 337 and 378 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 128.6 (increasing 16.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.6). Three hour interval K indices: 33222221 (planetary), 32232322 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11564 [S13W42] developed as a large leader spot formed. Many small spots disappeared. The region was the most active on the disk and produced an M1.4 long duration event peaking at 17:59 UTC.
Region 11566 [N22E15] was quiet and stable.
Region 11567 [N16E42] developed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1897 [S20W76] was quiet and stable.
New region S1904 [S10W13] emerged with several spots.
New region S1905 [S21W03] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

September 6-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH533) was in an Earth facing position on September 8 but may have been too far to the north to become geoeffective. A small coronal hole (CH534) in the southern hemisphere was Earth facing on September 8.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 9-10. Weak coronal hole effects could cause a few unsettled intervals on September 11-12.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11562 2012.08.29
2012.08.30
6     S21W77 0220 DAO       location: S19W64

SWPC thinks S1897 is part of this region

11563 2012.08.30       S24W51         location: S27W48
11564 2012.08.30
2012.08.31
19 38 12 S13W39 0140 EAI EKI location: S13W42
S1895 2012.09.02       S08W50           plage
11565 2012.09.02
2012.09.03
      N11W46          
S1897 2012.09.02   4 3 S21W63 0400   EHO  
11566 2012.09.03 1 7 1 N22E12 0060 HSX CSO

area: 0110

S1898 2012.09.03       N09W39           plage
S1900 2012.09.05       N37W04           plage
S1901 2012.09.06       N28W40           plage
11567 2012.09.07 4 11 3 N17E39 0050 DAO DSO location: N16E42
S1903 2012.09.07       N05W07         plage
S1904 2012.09.08   11 6 S10W13 0020   CRO    
S1905 2012.09.08   1   S21W03 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 30 72 25  
Sunspot number: 70 132 75  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 50 105 58  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 42 46 41 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.05 95.8 41.5 47.6 (+5.8) 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.8 57.2 (+4.0) 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 59.0 (+1.8) 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 59.5 (+0.5) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4) 8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 (67.3 projected, +0.4) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 (66.5 projected, -0.8) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 (64.4 projected, -2.1) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 (63.6 projected, -0.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 (64.6 projected, +1.0) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.1 (67.2 projected, +2.6) 7.53
2012.09 136.2 (1)  31.0 (2A)/ 116.4 (2B) (70.0 projected, +2.8) (17.73)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.