Last major update issued on September 3, 2012 at 06:00 UTC.
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[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on September 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 291 and 331 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 142.3 (increasing 8.2 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 16.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33332345 (planetary), 23342333 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 14 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11553 [S21W68] decayed slowly producing a few small C flares.
Region 11555 [N08W39] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11558 [N16W05] quietly added a few small spots.
Region 11560 [N03W18] decayed in the leading and trailing spot sections
and developed centrally. A magnetic delta structure formed in the largest
central penumbra. A major flare is possible. Flares:
C2.8 long duration event peaking at 03:38 (this event was associated with a
faint and slow full halo CME), C5.5 at 18:10 UTC and several other small C
flares.
Region 11561 [S12W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11562 [S18E12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11563 [S26E29] was quiet and stable.
Region 11564 [S15E43] developed slowly adding many small spots. An M
class flare is possible.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1884 [N15W22] reemerged with a single spot.
S1890 [S19W05] was quiet and stable.
S1892 [N13W68] reemerged with several spots.
New region S1895 [S08E27] emerged with two spots.
New region S1896 [N10E37] emerged with several spots.
New region S1897 [S21E05] emerged with a single spot.
September 2: A full faint halo CME was observed early in the day and
could reach Earth on September 5.
September 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
August 31: A large and bright full halo CME was observed following a
filament eruption in the southeast quadrant. This CME could reach Earth during
the latter half of September 3.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A small northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH532) was in an Earth facing position on September 2-3.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on September 3-4 due to CME effects and quiet to minor storm on September 5-6 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11553 | 2012.08.22 2012.08.23 |
5 | 8 | 5 | S22W69 | 0140 | DAI | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0200 |
| 11555 | 2012.08.24 2012.08.25 |
6 | 2 | N08W40 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11557 | 2012.08.27 | N17W45 | plage | ||||||||
| 11558 | 2012.08.27 | 13 | 6 | N13W04 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N16W05 | ||
| S1881 | 2012.08.27 | S19W43 | plage | ||||||||
| S1882 | 2012.08.27 | N23W20 | plage | ||||||||
| 11559 | 2012.08.27 2012.08.28 |
N17W04 | originally AR 11558 | ||||||||
| S1884 | 2012.08.27 | 1 | 1 | N15W22 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S1885 | 2012.08.28 | N24W54 | plage | ||||||||
| S1886 | 2012.08.28 | N08W50 | plage | ||||||||
| 11560 | 2012.08.29 | 21 | 40 | 25 | N03W17 | 0260 | EHI | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0500 |
| 11561 | 2012.08.29 2012.08.30 |
2 | 3 | 3 | S12W23 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11562 | 2012.08.29 2012.08.30 |
3 | 7 | 3 | S17E10 | 0020 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S18E12 |
| S1890 | 2012.08.29 | 1 | 1 | S18W05 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11563 | 2012.08.30 | 4 | 13 | 4 | S26E29 | 0050 | DAO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11564 | 2012.08.30 2012.08.31 |
13 | 56 | 22 | S15E41 | 0150 | DAO | EAI |
 |
 |
|
| S1892 | 2012.08.30 | 3 | 2 | N13W68 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S1894 | 2012.09.01 | S02E03 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S1895 | 2012.09.02 | 2 | S08E27 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S1896 | 2012.09.02 | 6 | 4 | N10E37 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S1897 | 2012.09.02 | 1 | 1 | S21E05 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 48 | 160 | 80 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 108 | 300 | 210 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 83 | 184 | 104 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 65 | 105 | 116 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.5 | 47.6 (+5.8) | 8.94 |
| 2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | 53.2 (+5.6) | 8.06 |
| 2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.8 | 57.2 (+4.0) | 8.16 |
| 2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | 59.0 (+1.8) | 7.26 |
| 2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | 59.5 (+0.5) | 12.27 |
| 2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | 59.9 (+0.4) | 8.28 |
| 2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
| 2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) | 8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | (67.3 projected, +0.4) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | (66.5 projected, -0.8) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | (64.4 projected, -2.1) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | (63.6 projected, -0.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | (64.6 projected, +1.0) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.1 | (67.2 projected, +2.6) | 7.53 |
| 2012.09 | 144.0 (1) | 7.4 (2A)/ 114.0 (2B) | (70.0 projected, +2.8) | (11.38) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
