Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 1, 2012 at 04:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update November 1, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2012) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 1, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated October 7, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 31. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 272 and 380 km/s. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 14:45 UTC, the arrival of the October 27 CME. Since the shock the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly northwards resulting in only a minor geomagnetic disturbance.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 104.2 (decreasing 5.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.1). Three hour interval K indices: 00011322 (planetary), 00112422 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11598 [S11W63] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 11599 [S12W36] was quiet and stable.
Region 11601 [S09W11] reemerged with a single spot.
Region 11602 [S20E38] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S2020 [N11E10] reemerged with  single spot.
S2023 [N08W03] was quiet and stable.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 29-31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A coronal hole (CH543) was in an Earth facing position on October 31 and has moved southwards over the last days and could merge with CH544. A recurrent coronal hole (CH544) in the southern hemisphere will be in an Earth facing position on November 1.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is good to very good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 1 due to CME effects, there's a chance of active intervals. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on November 2. Quiet to unsettled is possible on November 3 due to effects from CH543, becoming unsettled to minor storm on November 4-5 as a stream from CH544 reaches Earth.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11598 2012.10.20 2 8 2 S11W65 0230 HSX CKO

area: 0280

11599 2012.10.22
2012.10.23
2 4 3 S13W38 0110 HSX CSO area: 0180
11600 2012.10.24
2012.10.26
      N09W82           plage
11601 2012.10.25
2012.10.29
  1 1 S10W19 0000   AXX   location: S09W11
S2014 2012.10.27       S02W55            
S2015 2012.10.27       S21W46         plage
11602 2012.10.28
2012.10.29
1 4 2 S19E37 0030 HAX HSX location: S20E52

area: 0070

S2017 2012.10.28       N15W40         plage
S2019 2012.10.28       N10W21           plage
S2020 2012.10.29   1   N11E10 0000   AXX    
S2021 2012.10.29       N17W04           plage
S2022 2012.10.30       N03E39         plage
S2023 2012.10.30   1 1 N08W03 0000   AXX  
S2024 2012.10.30       N34W16         plage
Total spot count: 5 19 9  
Sunspot number: 35 79 59  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 20 39 29  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 21 28 32 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.08 101.7 50.6 59.0 (+1.8) 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 59.5 (+0.5) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
possible cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 66.8 (-0.1) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 64.6 (-2.2) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 (61.2 projected, -3.4) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 (58.8 projected, -2.4) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 (58.6 projected, -0.2) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.1 (60.4 projected, +1.8) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.5 (61.8 projected, +1.4) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 (61.5 projected, -0.3) 10.40
2012.11 (1) 0.0 (2A/2B) / 50.2 (2C) (61.2 projected, -0.3) ()

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.