Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on October 10, 2012 at 04:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update October 3, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2012) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 3, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 3, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 1, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated October 7, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to severe storm on October 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 308 and 590 km/s, early in the day under the influence of a CME. After about 11h UTC a high speed stram from CH538 became the dominant solar wind source.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 106.2 (increasing 3.6 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 48 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 47.5). Three hour interval K indices: 76642235 (planetary), 66652335 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11585 [S18W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11586 [S12E39] gained a few tiny spots and was quiet.
New region 11587 [S08W77] emerged on October 8 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region developed slowly on October 9.
New region 11588 [N08W61] emerged on October 4 and got its NOAA number 5 days later. Slow development was observed on October 9.
New region 11589 [N13E76] rotated into view as a compact region and displayed less activity than during the previous 2 days.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1969 [N12W62] was quiet and stable.
New region S1971 [N13W57] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S1972 [N27W28] emerged with a tiny spot.

An active region just behind the southeast limb produced most of the flare activity during the day. The largest event was an M1.7 flare at 23:30 UTC. Further M class flaring is likely.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH539) will rotate into an Earth facing position on October 9-11. A coronal hole (CH540) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on October 11. Another northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH541) could become Earth facing on October 13.

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active intervals on October 10 due to effects from CH538. Quiet to unsettled is likely on October 11. A high speed stream from CH539 could cause some unsettled and active intervals on October 12-15 with contribution from CH540 on October 14-15. A high speed stream from CH541 could produce a few unsettled and active intervals on October 16-17.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region	Date numbered detected	Spot count			Location at midnight	Area	Classification		SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay		Comment
		SWPC	STAR SDO				SWPC	STAR	Current	Previous
			2K	1K
11585	2012.10.01 2012.10.02	6	9	7	S20W29	0200	CSO	DAO			location: S18W27
S1961	2012.10.04				N22W28						plage
11588	2012.10.04 2012.10.09	2	7	2	N08W61	0010	BXO	DAO			area: 0040
S1963	2012.10.05				S08W37						plage
11586	2012.10.06 2012.10.07	1	6	2	S13E38	0080	HSX	CSO
S1965	2012.10.06				S23W05						plage
S1967	2012.10.08				N14E25						plage
S1968	2012.10.08				N51W09						plage
S1969	2012.10.08		3		N12W62	0000		BXO
11587	2012.10.08 2012.10.09	1	2	2	S09W78	0010	AXX	DRO
11589	2012.10.09	3	8	5	N13E75	0110	CAO	DAC			area: 0350
S1971	2012.10.09		4	1	N13W57	0000		BXO
S1972	2012.10.09		1	1	N27W28	0000		AXX
Total spot count:		13	40	20
Sunspot number:		63	120	90	(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN:		28	63	43	(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):		38	42	50	k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.