Last major update issued on November 25, 2012 at 07:40 UTC.
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[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 24. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 346 and 451 km/s under the influence of CME effects. The interplanetary magnetic field was northwards after noon causing a decrease in the disturbance level.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 118.0 (increasing 1.0 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.3). Three hour interval K indices: 54323211 (planetary), 44434311 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11618 [N09W40] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 11619 [N10W84] was quiet and stable.
Region 11620 [S13E01] gained a few spots and was quiet.
New region 11621 [N15E78] rotated into view.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S2059 [N08W35] was quiet and stable. The leader spot decayed a little and
is still at the southeast edge of a trailing AR 11618 penumbra.
S2066 [S08W23] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S2068 [N16W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
S2070 [S23E47] decayed and lost the leader spots.
New region S2072 [S17E52] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S2073 [S11E33] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S2074 [N15E09] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S2075 [S05W05] emerged with a tiny spot.
November 22: A filament eruption was observed starting in the southeast
quadrant just after 08h UTC. LASCO C3 observed a faint and slow CME off the east
limb from 10:42 UTC while the CME was visible in STEREO imagery from 10:09 UTC.
There may be a very weak Earth directed component associated with this CME.
November 23: A filament eruption in the southern hemisphere was observed
starting at 11:42 and peaking just after 14h UTC. In LASCO imagery it is
difficult to determine if this CME was geoeffective due to a CME with an origin
in an active region behind the northeast limb occurring a little earlier. STEREO
imagery indicate that a faint component of the CME could be Earth directed.
November 24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH546) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on November 27.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 25-26 due to CME effects, there's a chance of active intervals. Quiet conditions are likely on November 27-28.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
11616 | 2012.11.13 2012.11.14 |
5 | N19W69 | 0020 | DAO | spotless | |||||
11618 | 2012.11.15 2012.11.17 |
22 | 33 | 17 | N08W41 | 0340 | EKC | DAC | |||
11619 | 2012.11.15 2012.11.17 |
4 | 1 | 1 | N13W78 | 0100 | ESO | HSX |
location: N10W84 SWPC data does not match reality |
||
S2059 | 2012.11.16 | 4 | 2 | N08W35 | 0020 | CRO | |||||
S2060 | 2012.11.17 | S13W42 | plage | ||||||||
S2061 | 2012.11.18 | S33W32 | plage | ||||||||
11620 | 2012.11.18 2012.11.20 |
5 | 13 | 8 | S12W00 | 0020 | CSO | CRO | area: 0050 | ||
S2064 | 2012.11.19 | S21E07 | plage | ||||||||
S2065 | 2012.11.19 | N13W49 | plage | ||||||||
S2066 | 2012.11.20 | 1 | S08W23 | 0000 | plage | ||||||
S2067 | 2012.11.21 | S17W13 | plage | ||||||||
S2068 | 2012.11.21 | 2 | 2 | N16W80 | 0020 | HRX | |||||
S2069 | 2012.11.22 | N18W23 | plage | ||||||||
S2070 | 2012.11.23 | 1 | S23E47 | 0000 | AXX | ||||||
S2071 | 2012.11.23 | S20E05 | plage | ||||||||
11621 | 2012.11.24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | N15E78 | 0060 | HAX | HSX | area: 0180 | ||
S2072 | 2012.11.24 | 1 | 1 | S17E52 | 0000 | AXX | |||||
S2073 | 2012.11.24 | 1 | 1 | S11E23 | 0000 | AXX | |||||
S2074 | 2012.11.24 | 1 | 1 | N15E09 | 0000 | AXX | |||||
S2075 | 2012.11.24 | 1 | S05W05 | 0000 | AXX | ||||||
Total spot count: | 37 | 60 | 34 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 87 | 180 | 124 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 67 | 84 | 58 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 52 | 63 | 68 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K |
Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | 59.5 (+0.5) | 12.27 |
2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | 59.9 (+0.4) | 8.28 |
2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | (61.2 projected, -3.4) | 7.06 |
2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | (58.8 projected, -2.4) | 10.08 |
2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | (58.6 projected, -0.2) | 13.90 |
2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.1 | (60.4 projected, +1.8) | 7.96 |
2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.5 | (61.8 projected, +1.4) | 8.07 |
2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | (61.5 projected, -0.3) | 9.97 |
2012.11 | 122.6 (1) | 74.8 (2A) / 93.5 (2B) / 57.0 (2C) | (61.2 projected, -0.3) | (8.16) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.