Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 16, 2012 at 04:55 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update November 1, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2012) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 4, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated October 7, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 404 and 518 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 141.7 (increasing 0.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21111011 (planetary), 11011211 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11610 [S23W52] decayed significantly after producing a long duration  C6.3 event peaking at 04:37 UTC.
Region 11611 [N11W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11612 [N07W17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11613 [S24E07] decayed further and produced only a few small C flares.
Region 11614 [N14E19] has many spots but lacks significant magnetic complexity.
Region 11615 [N07E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11616 [N18E49] developed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S2048 [N25W26] was quiet and stable
S2049 [S18W04] developed slowly and quietly.
S2055 [S22E29] was quiet and stable.
New region S2056 [N08E79] rotated into view.
New region S2057 [N23W28] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S2058 [N10E47] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 16-18.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11608 2012.11.04
2012.11.05
      S20W73           plage
11609 2012.11.05
2012.11.06
      S14W52         plage
11610 2012.11.06
2012.11.07
12 14 7 S21W50 0200 ESI CAI location: S23W52

 

S2038 2012.11.07       S06W48           plage
11611 2012.11.07
2012.11.08
10 9 4 N15W27 0140 DSO CSO

area: 0220

location: N11W28

11612 2012.11.08 1 4 1 N08W17 0030 HAX CSO area: 0060
11613 2012.11.09
2012.11.11
9 8 5 S24E08 0100 DSO DSO beta-gamma

area: 0180

11614 2012.11.10
2012.11.11
23 41 15 N17E18 0290 DKI DAI

location: N14E19

11615 2012.11.11 3 10 4 N10E08 0050 DAO CRO

location: N07E07

area: 0030

S2045 2012.11.11       S15W32           plage
S2047 2012.11.12       S09W31           plage
S2048 2012.11.12   2   N23W28 0000   BXO reversed polarities
S2049 2012.11.13   5 3 S18W04 0010   CRO  
11616 2012.11.13
2012.11.14
4 25 9 N21E50 0100 DSO DSI location: N18E49
S2051 2012.11.14       S12E24         plage
S2052 2012.11.14       N42E17         plage
S2053 2012.11.14       S32E16         plage
S2054 2012.11.14       S18W59         plage
S2055 2012.11.14   4 2 S22E29 0000   AXX  
S2056 2012.11.15   1   N08E79 0000   AXX    
S2057 2012.11.15   2   N23W28 0000   BXO    
S2058 2012.11.15   1   N10E47 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 62 126 50  
Sunspot number: 132 256 140  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 102 162 86  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 79 90 77 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.09 133.8 78.0 59.5 (+0.5) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
possible cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 66.8 (-0.1) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 64.6 (-2.2) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 (61.2 projected, -3.4) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 (58.8 projected, -2.4) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 (58.6 projected, -0.2) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.1 (60.4 projected, +1.8) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.5 (61.8 projected, +1.4) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 (61.5 projected, -0.3) 9.97
2012.11 115.2 (1) 40.4 (2A) / 80.8 (2B) / 55.2 (2C) (61.2 projected, -0.3) (9.82)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.