Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on May 20, 2012 at 06:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update May 3, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update May 3, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update May 3, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update May 3, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated May 19, 2012]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012] - 2119 [January-February 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 19. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 351 and 451 km/s. A weak solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 01:44 UTC on May 20, likely the arrival of the CME observed early on May 17. A minor increase in geomagnetic disturbance levels has since been observed.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 130.9 (decreasing 17.0 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.5). Three hour interval K indices: 32111111 (planetary), 22122211 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 10 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11478 [S23W61] was quiet and stable.
Region 11479 [N14W39] was quiet and stable.
Region 11481 [S10W16] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 11482 [N15W31] matured as the leading penumbrae merged. There's still minor polarity intermixing and a slight chance of an M class flares.
Region 11483 [S23W30] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11484 [N11W02] gained a few spots, however, the largest penumbra became symmetrical and there was loss of leading polarity penumbral area. There's a slight chance of an M class flare.
Region 11485 [S18E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11486 [N15E55] was mostly unchanged and quiet.

Spotted active regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1659 [N11E31] was quiet and stable.
New region S1667 [N04E65] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

May 18-19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery.
May 17: A partial halo CME was observed after an M5 LDE in AR 11476 early in the day.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH517) was in an Earth facing position on May 19.

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on May 20 due to CME effects. Quiet conditions are likely on May 21. A high speed stream from CH517 could arrive on May 22 and cause quiet to active conditions until May 23.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region	Date numbered detected	Spot count			Location at midnight	Area	Classification		SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay		Comment
		SWPC	STAR SDO				SWPC	STAR	Current	Previous
			2K	1K
11477	2012.05.07 2012.05.08	1			S22W72	0020	HRX				plage
11478	2012.05.08 2012.05.10	1	1	1	S23W62	0050	HSX	HSX			area: 0080
11479	2012.05.10 2012.05.11	1	3	2	N15W39	0050	HSX	HSX			area: 0070
11482	2012.05.11 2012.05.13	14	31	11	N15W30	0280	DKI	DHI			beta-gamma area: 0400
11483	2012.05.12 2012.05.13	4	12	7	S24W29	0010	BXO	DRO			area: 0040
11481	2012.05.12 2012.05.13		2		S10W22	0000		BXO			location: S10W16
11484	2012.05.13	16	42	18	N10W03	0230	DAC	DSC			area: 0400
S1651	2012.05.13				N31W38						plage
S1654	2012.05.14				S25E02						plage
S1655	2012.05.14				S18W26						plage
S1659	2012.05.15		3		N11E31	0000		BXO
S1661	2012.05.15				N33W10						plage
11485	2012.05.15		5	2	S20E13	0010		BXO			location: S18E13
11486	2012.05.17 2012.05.18	3	7	4	N16E54	0200	CSO	DHO			area: 0320
S1663	2012.05.17				N12E10						plage
S1664	2012.05.17				N22W33						plage
S1665	2012.05.18				N21E07						plage
S1666	2012.05.18				S19E22						plage
S1667	2012.05.19		1		N04E55	0000		AXX
Total spot count:		40	107	45
Sunspot number:		110	207	115	(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN:		73	145	83	(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):		66	72	63	k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.