Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 18, 2012 at 04:30 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update March 2, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update March 1, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated March 5, 2012]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012] - 2119 [January-February 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on March 17. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 576 and 697 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH507.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 102.4 (decreasing 2.9 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 35 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 34.8). Three hour interval K indices: 55533446 (planetary), 43433333 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11433 [N10W15] added a few small spots again and was quiet.
Region 11434 [S21W27] became unstable as opposite polarity flux emerged near the leader spots. Flare: impulsive M1.3 at 20:39 UTC
Region 11435 [S26W36] developed fairly quickly and could produce C and maybe minor M class flares.
Region 11436 [S13E51] was quiet and stable.
New region 11437 [S35E15] emerged in the southeast quadrant on March 16 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1525] was split off from region 11432 on March 13. Decay was observed on March 16-17. Location at midnight: N13W37.
[S1529] reemerged with a single small spot on March 17. Location at midnight: N14E05
[S1531] emerged in the northern hemisphere near the central meridian on March 17. Location at midnight: N06W06

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 15: A small CME was observed in STEREO imagery. This CME could reach Earth on March 18.
March 16-17
: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A large recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH507) was in an Earth facing position on March 13-14. A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will probably rotate into an Earth facing location on March 20.

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on March 18 due to a high speed stream from CH507, quiet to unsettled is likely on March 19 becoming quiet on March 20. A weak CME could arrive on March 18, however, it may be difficult or impossible to notice due to the strong high speed stream currently in progress.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11432 2012.03.08
2012.03.09
4     N14W39 0030 CRO     spotless

location: N15W40

SWPC includes region S1525

11434 2012.03.10
2012.03.11
3 8 6 S22W27 0030 CRO DRI  
11433 2012.03.10
2012.03.11
6 6 2 N13W17 0060 CSO CSO location: N10W15
11435 2012.03.11
2012.03.15
11 14 9 S26W37 0060 DSO DAI area: 0150
S1525 2012.03.13   4   N13W37 0000   BXO  
S1526 2012.03.14       S24W16           plage
S1527 2012.03.14       N10W55           plage
11436 2012.03.15
2012.03.16
3 3 1 S14E50 0010 BXO BXO location: S13E51
S1529 2012.03.15   1   N14E05 0000   AXX    
11437 2012.03.16
2012.03.17
2 3 2 S34E15 0020 CSO AXX area: 0010

location: S35E15

S1531 2012.03.17   2 2 N06W06 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 29 41 22  
Sunspot number: 89 121 82  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN: 50 54 35  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 53 42 45 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
 
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4)  6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 36.9 (+3.5) 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 41.8 (+4.9) 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 47.6 (+5.8) 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.9 57.2 (+4.0) 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 59.0 (+1.8) 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 (59.2 projected, +0.2) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 (59.4 projected, +0.2) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 (60.8 projected, +1.4) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 (63.6 projected, +2.8) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 (67.1 projected, +3.5) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 33.1 (71.0 projected, +3.9) 8.81
2012.03 123.1 (1) 44.2 (2A) / 80.5 (2B) (73.2 projected, +2.2) (27.78)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.