Last major update issued on June 30, 2012 at 06:40 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated
daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update
June 2, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update June 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
24 (last update June 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update
June 24, 2012)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated June 19, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 29. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 353 and 438 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 117.4 (decreasing 11.7 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 11111123 (planetary), 11112213 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11512 [S15W16] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Minor
polarity intermixing is present.
Region 11513 [N16E33] lost some spots, however, a magnetic delta
structure formed in the western part of the largest penumbra. Further M class
flaring is possible.
Flares: C6.7 at 01:25, M2.2/1B at 09:19 UTC as well as a few C flares
below the C5 level.
Region 11514 [S15E30] added a few spots and was quiet. There's minor
polarity intermixing.
Region 11515 [S17E45] developed into a compact region capable of
producing M class flares. Flares: C4.6 at
04:14, C6.2 at 06:47 UTC
New region 11516 [N14E45] emerged on June 27 and got the attention of
SWPC two days later. The region developed slowly on June 29.
Spotted active regions not numbered or interpreted differently by NOAA/SWPC:
S1763 [N07W60] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S1764 [N20W23] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S1765 [S28E22] emerged with tiny spots.
June 27-29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A large recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH521) will rotate into an Earth facing position on June 29 - July 1.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 30. A high speed stream from CH521 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on July 1-3.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
S1745 | 2012.06.21 | N20W23 | plage | ||||||||
S1747 | 2012.06.22 | S32W47 | plage | ||||||||
11512 | 2012.06.24 2012.06.25 |
16 | 21 | 8 | S16W16 | 0290 | DKI | ESO |
beta-gamma area: 0260 |
||
S1751 | 2012.06.24 | S13W36 | plage | ||||||||
S1753 | 2012.06.25 | S27E15 | plage | ||||||||
S1754 | 2012.06.25 | S18W26 | plage | ||||||||
11513 | 2012.06.25 2012.06.26 |
8 | 14 | 6 | N17E30 | 0100 | DSO | DSO |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0180 location: N16E33
|
||
11514 | 2012.06.26 2012.06.27 |
11 | 29 | 14 | S15E42 | 0060 | DAO | DRI |
beta-gamma area: 0080 location: S17E45 |
||
11515 | 2012.06.26 2012.06.27 |
8 | 20 | 11 | S17E43 | 0310 | DKC | EKC |
beta-gamma area: 0550 location: S17E45 |
||
S1758 | 2012.06.26 | N14W15 | plage | ||||||||
S1759 | 2012.06.26 | N19W29 | plage | ||||||||
S1760 | 2012.06.26 | N06W31 | plage | ||||||||
11516 | 2012.06.27 2012.06.29 |
4 | 15 | 7 | N13E43 | 0030 | DRO | DAO |
location: N14E45 area: 0090 |
||
S1762 | 2012.06.27 | N03E12 | plage | ||||||||
S1763 | 2012.06.28 | 3 | 2 | N07W60 | 0010 | BXO | |||||
S1764 | 2012.06.29 | 1 | N20W23 | 0000 | AXX | ||||||
S1765 | 2012.06.29 | 2 | 1 | S28E22 | 0000 | AXX | |||||
Total spot count: | 47 | 105 | 49 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 97 | 185 | 119 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted penumbral SN: | 80 | 133 | 77 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 58 | 65 | 65 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K |
Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
|
2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | 36.9 (+3.5) | 8.18 |
2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | 41.8 (+4.9) | 8.83 |
2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | 47.6 (+5.8) | 8.94 |
2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | 53.2 (+5.6) | 8.06 |
2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.9 | 57.2 (+4.0) | 8.16 |
2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | 59.0 (+1.8) | 7.26 |
2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | 59.5 (+0.5) | 12.27 |
2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | 59.9 (+0.4) | 8.28 |
2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | (64.3 projected, +3.2) | 3.78 |
2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | (68.0 projected, +3.7) | 7.15 |
2012.02 | 106.5 | 33.1 | (71.3 projected, +3.3) | 8.81 |
2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.2 | (73.0 projected, +1.7) | 16.08 |
2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | (73.2 projected, +0.2) | 10.10 |
2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | (73.2 projected, +0.0) | 8.75 |
2012.06 | 119.5 (1) | 85.2 (2A) / 88.1 (2B) | (73.9 projected, +0.7) | (12.04) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.