Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 25, 2012 at 05:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update June 2, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress NEW]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update June 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update June 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update July 1, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated July 17, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 24. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 450 and 555 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH524.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 102.4 (decreasing 3.9 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.9). Three hour interval K indices: 23213221 (planetary), 33222221 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11525 [S22W45] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11526 [S18E13] was quiet and stable.
Region 11527 [N27E54] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11528 [N17E54] was quiet and stable.
Region 11529 [S11E57] was quiet and stable.
New region 11530 [S19E67] rotated into view on July 23 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region was the source of all C class flaring during the day, the largest a C4.2 event at 19:05 UTC.

Spotted active regions not numbered or interpreted differently by NOAA/SWPC:
New region S1819 [N21E33] emerged with a single spot.
New region S1820 [N18E22] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 22-24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A coronal hole (CH524) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on July 19-20. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH525) will rotate into an Earth facing position on July 25-27.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 25 due to effects from CH524 and quiet on July 26-27. A high speed stream from CH525 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on July 28-30.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11524 2012.07.15
2012.07.17
      S17W43           plage
11525 2012.07.16
2012.07.17
1 1 1 S21W43 0030 HSX HSX

location: S22W45

S1804 2012.07.18       S33W44           plage
11526 2012.07.19
2012.07.20
1 9 4 S17E11 0000 AXX BXO location: S18E13
S1806 2012.07.19       N16W27           plage
S1807 2012.07.19       S01W43           plage
S1808 2012.07.20       S25W33           plage
S1809 2012.07.20       S24W55           plage
S1811 2012.07.21       S11W17           plage
11528 2012.07.22
2012.07.23
1 5 2 N17E53 0080 HSX HSX  
11527 2012.07.22
2012.07.23
1 2 1 N27E53 0000 AXX AXX  
S1814 2012.07.22       S08W27           plage
11529 2012.07.22
2012.07.23
1 2 2 S12E57 0070 HSX HSX area: 0120
11530 2012.07.23
2012.07.24
1 3 3 S19E68 0090 HSX CSO area: 0240
S1817 2012.07.23       S32W07         plage
S1818 2012.07.23       N17W45         plage
S1819 2012.07.24   1 1 N21E33 0000   AXX    
S1820 2012.07.24   1 1 N18E23 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 6 24 15  
Sunspot number: 66 104 95  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN: 26 44 35  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 40 36 52 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
 
2011.04 112.6 54.4 41.8 (+4.9) 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 47.6 (+5.8) 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.9 57.2 (+4.0) 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 59.0 (+1.8) 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 59.5 (+0.5) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 (65.0 projected, +1.6) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 33.1 (66.5 projected, +1.5) 8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.2 (67.2 projected, +0.7) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 (66.5 projected, -0.7) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 (64.8 projected, -1.7) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 (64.0 projected, -0.8) 10.08
2012.07 136.4 (1) 78.8 (2A) / 101.8 (2B) (65.0 projected, +1.0) (18.09)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.