Last major update issued on July 20, 2012 at 05:05 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update June 2, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress NEW]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
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[POES auroral activity level since October
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[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 19. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 342 and 441 km/s. A weak solar wind shock was observed at ACE near 04:30 UTC on July 20.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 100.0 (increasing 11.6 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.1). Three hour interval K indices: 12212111 (planetary), 12222222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11520 rotated out of view early in the day. The region produced a
major long duration M7.7 peaking at 05:58 UTC. This event was associated with an
increase in proton levels at Earth and and a very wide and large CME. Usually a
CME with a limb origin won't reach Earth, however, in this case it was a full
halo CME as observed by LASCO.
Region 11523 [S29W66] decayed quickly and quietly losing all mature penumbra.
Region 11524 [S17E25] gained trailer spots fairly close to the leader spots.
Region 11525 [S22E24] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted active regions not numbered or interpreted differently by NOAA/SWPC:
New region S1805 [S18E77] rotated into view with a single spot.
New region S1806 [N16E32] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S1807 [S01E12] emerged with a northern hemisphere polarity layout just south of the equator.
July 17-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
July 19: While the core of the full halo CME observed after the M7.7 event in AR 11520 won't reach Earth, there's at least a 50% chance of a flank impact on July 22.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH524) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on July 19-20, but could be too far to the south to become geoeffective.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active intervals on July 20 due to weak CME effects. Quiet conditions are likely on July 21 while CME effects on July 22 could cause quiet to active conditions with a chance of minor storm intervals. On July 22-23 there's a chance of weak effects from CH524.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||9||21||10|
|Sunspot number:||39||81||60||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted penumbral SN:||24||32||21||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||23||28||33||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2012.01||132.5||58.3||(65.0 projected, +1.6)||7.15|
|2012.02||106.5||33.1||(66.5 projected, +1.5)||8.81|
|2012.03||114.7||64.2||(67.2 projected, +0.7)||16.08|
|2012.04||113.0||55.2||(66.5 projected, -0.7)||10.10|
|2012.05||121.5||69.0||(64.8 projected, -1.7)||7.06|
|2012.06||119.6||64.5||(64.0 projected, -0.8)||10.08|
|2012.07||147.3 (1)||70.5 (2A) / 114.9 (2B)||(65.0 projected, +1.0)||(20.47)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.