Last major update issued on July 12, 2012 at 06:35 UTC. Minor update posted at 18:25 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update June 2, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress NEW]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update June 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update June 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update July 1, 2012)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated July 2, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 457 and 578 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH522.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 161.7 (increasing 21.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.3). Three hour interval K indices: 33331123 (planetary), 23331223 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11518 [N10W26] decayed slowly and could become spotless today.
Region 11519 [S16W17] was quiet and stable.
Region 11520 [S17E08] again displayed little change. The huge penumbra has a magnetic delta structure in the central part and there is a chance of a major flare. Flare: C5.6/1N at 22:27 and several sub C5 level flares.
Region 11521 [S22W08] decayed in the trailing spot section with a decrease in polarity intermixing. Flare: C9.9 at 08:31 UTC
Spotted active regions not numbered or interpreted differently by NOAA/SWPC:
S1776 [S16W02] was quiet and stable.
S1777 [S12E05] was quiet and stable.
S1783 [N11W05] added several spots in the leading spot section as new flux emerged.
S1785 [S27W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
S1792 [N26W03] was quiet and stable.
New region S1793 [S28E45] emerged with two spots and has developed further early on July 12 adding rudimentary penumbra.
New region S1794 [S27W08] emerged with two spots.
Minor update added at 16:25 UTC on July 12: AR 11520 produced a major long duration X1.4 flare peaking at 16:52 UTC. An above 10 MeV proton event is currently in progress. A CME was observed immediately after the flare peak in STEREO-B images, STEREO-A and LASCO had no available imagery as I write this. Given the location of the flare it is highly likely a full halo CME was produced. The CME could reach Earth on July 14, probably before noon, and cause minor to severe geomagnetic storming.
July 9-11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH522] in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on July 6-7.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 12 and quiet on July 13-14.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
SWPC count, location, classification and area probably includes ARs S1776 and S1777
|Total spot count:||64||170||79|
|Sunspot number:||94||280||159||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted penumbral SN:||84||200||109||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||56||98||87||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2012.01||132.5||58.3||(65.0 projected, +1.6)||7.15|
|2012.02||106.5||33.1||(66.5 projected, +1.5)||8.81|
|2012.03||114.7||64.2||(67.2 projected, +0.7)||16.08|
|2012.04||113.0||55.2||(66.5 projected, -0.7)||10.10|
|2012.05||121.5||69.0||(64.8 projected, -1.7)||7.06|
|2012.06||119.6||64.5||(64.0 projected, -0.8)||10.08|
|2012.07||156.6 (1)||45.5 (2A) / 128.4 (2B)||(65.0 projected, +1.0)||(17.63)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.