Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 6, 2012 at 04:30 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update January 2, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update Jauary 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update January 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update January 5, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 3, 2012]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2116 [October-November 2011] - 2117 [November-December 2011]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 292 and 337 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 141.3 (decreasing 2.2 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.1). Three hour interval K indices: 10103121 (planetary), 10213321 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11388 [S24W49] was quiet and stable.
Region 11389 [S18W39] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC includes region S1401 in this region.
Region 11390 [N10W74] lost some trailing spots while the leader penumbra increased its area. Flare: C1.9 at 07:22 UTC.
Region 11391 [N12E40] was mostly quiet and displayed no significant changes.
Region 11392 [N21W18] developed again as new flux emerged.
New region 11393 [N17W02] emerged in the northeast quadrant on January 4 and got an SWPC number the next day. The region decayed on January 5.

Spotted regions not reported (or interpreted differently) by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1401] rotated into view at the southeast limb on December 28 and developed significantly in the central and trailing spot sections on Dec.29-31. The leading spot section decayed on January 1. Quick decay was observed on January 2-4. Location at midnight: S24W29.
[S1406] reemerged on January 4. Location at midnight: N08E05
[S1410] emerged in the northeast quadrant on January 5. Location at midnight: N18E56

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 3-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
January 5: A fairly large filament eruption to the north of region 11392 was recorded as a long duration C2.1 long duration event peaking at 12:38 UTC. While the core of the associated CME will not reach Earth, STEREO imagery hints at the possibility that the outer edge of the CME could do so.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH491) was in an Earth facing position on January 4-5.

The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 6. A high speed stream from CH491 could cause some unsettled and active intervals on January 7-8. There's a minor chance of a weak flank CME impact on January 8 or 9.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
11388 2011.12.26
2011.12.27
1 1 S26W48 0050 HSX HSX area: 0090

location: S24W49

11389 2011.12.27
2011.12.28
5 3 S23W29 0200 CAO HHX

area: 0320

location: S18W34

SWPC includes region S1401

S1401 2011.12.28   8 S24W29 0000   BXO  
11390 2011.12.28 12 9 N10W74 0170 DAO CKO

area: 0320

S1405 2011.12.31     N20W47           plage
11391 2012.01.02 10 14 N13E40 0420 DHO DHO

area: 0550

S1406 2012.01.02   2 N08E05 0000   AXX  
11392 2012.01.02
2012.01.03
2 14 N21W19 0010 BXO DRI area: 0040
11393 2012.01.04
2012.01.05
9 9 N18W03 0040 DAO CRI  
S1409 2012.01.04     S15W15         plage
S1410 2012.01.05   2 N18E56 0000   BXO    
Total spot count: 39 62  
Sunspot number: 99 152  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN: 69 103  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 59 68  k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1) for STAR SDO

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 36.9 (+3.5) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 41.8 (+4.9) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 47.6 (+5.8) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.96 / 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.9 (57.8 projected, +4.6) 9.14 / 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 (62.0 projected, +4.2) 8.16 / 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 (65.3 projected, +3.3) 12.80 / 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 (68.8 projected, +3.5) 7.52
2011.11 153.5 96.7 (73.2 projected, +4.3) 4.58
2011.12 141.3 73.0 (78.6 projected, +5.5) 3.32
2012.01 135.4 (1) 13.8 (2A) / 85.6 (2B) (84.4 projected, +5.8) (4.63)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.