Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 21, 2012 at 05:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update February 2, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update February 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update February 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update February 5, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated February 21, 2012]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012] - 2119 [January-February 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 20. Solar wind speed ranged between 443 and 559 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH501.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 111.1 (decreasing 24.6 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 16.9). Three hour interval K indices: 34433332 (planetary), 34432332 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11419 [N28W31] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11420 [N12W29] was quiet and stable.
Region 11421 [N15E35] lost spots in the northern part and gained spots in the southeast. Flare: C4.1 at 05:09 UTC.
Region 11422 [N16W11] developed further and has M class flare potential. There's a weak magnetic delta structure at the eastern edge of the leading penumbra. Flares: C1.1 at 03:46, C1.1 at 11:27 UTC.

Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1477] reemerged on February 20. Location at midnight: S22W42
[S1480] reemerged on February 19. Location at midnight: N15W60
[S1483] reemerged on February 20. Location at midnight: N42W08

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 18-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH501) was in an Earth facing position on February 15-16. A recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere (CH502) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on February 20-21.

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 21 due to effects from CH501. Quiet conditions are likely on February 22 and most of February 23. A high speed stream from CH502 could arrive on February 23 or 24 and cause quiet to unsettled conditions.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11417 2012.02.09
2012.02.10
      N18W80           plage
11419 2012.02.12 3 3 2 N29W18 0020 CRO CRO location: N28W31
11420 2012.02.12 2 1 1 N11W30 0060 CSO HSX

 

S1477 2012.02.13   1   S22W42 0000   AXX    
S1479 2012.02.13       N23W45           plage
S1480 2012.02.16   1   N15W60 0000   AXX  
11421 2012.02.17
2012.02.18
2 4 2 N18E32 0030 CRO BXO  
S1482 2012.02.17       N14E39           plage
S1483 2012.02.17   1   N42W08 0000   AXX    
S1484 2012.02.17       S15W46         plage
11422 2012.02.18
2012.02.19
12 24 13 N16W11 0240 DAI DHI beta-gamma-delta

area: 0600

S1486 2012.02.18       N07E02           plage
S1487 2012.02.19       S13W05         plage
S1488 2012.02.19       S24E24         plage
Total spot count: 19 35 18  
Sunspot number: 59 105 58  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN: 35 53 36  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 35 47    k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 36.9 (+3.5) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 41.8 (+4.9) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 47.6 (+5.8) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.96 / 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.9 57.2 (+4.0) 9.14 / 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 (60.4 projected, +3.2) 8.16 / 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 (63.1 projected, +2.7) 12.80 / 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 (65.8 projected, +2.7) 7.52 / 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 (69.1 projected, +3.3) 4.58 / 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 (73.9 projected, +4.8) 3.32
2012.01 132.5 58.3 (79.3 projected, +5.4) 6.59
2012.02 107.2 (1) 34.8 (2A) / 50.4 (2B) (82.4 projected, +3.1) (8.37)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.