Last major update issued on September 1, 2012 at 06:45 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on August 31. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 277 and 368 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 130.5 (decreasing 8.2 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11111000 (planetary), 01112211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11553 [S21W43] is a compact region with minor polarity
intermixing and minor M class flare potential.
Region 11554 [N16W79] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 11555 [N07W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11558 [N17E20] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11560 [N03E10] lost the magnetic delta structure. There's still
some polarity intermixing and a minor M class flare is possible.
Region 11561 [S12E03] was quiet and stable.
Region 11562 [S18E38] added a few spots and was quiet.
Region 11563 [S26E56] decayed slowly producing some small C flares.
New region 11564 [S14E68] rotated into view on August 30 and was numbered
by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1890 [S18E17] was quiet and could soon become spotless.
S1892 [N12W43] was quiet and stable.
New region S1893 [S16W56] emerged in what used to be the westernmost part
of AR 11553.
An impressive filament eruption covering a large area in the southeast quadrant peaked as a C8.4/2F long duration event peaking at 20:43 UTC. A weak enhancement in proton levels has been observed early on September 1. The eruption was associated with a bright and large full halo CME.
August 29-30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
August 31: A large and bright full halo CME was observed following a
filament eruption in the southeast quadrant. This CME could reach Earth during
the latter half of September 3.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 1-2. A CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on September 4.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11552 | 2012.08.20 2012.08.21 |
S17W77 | plage | ||||||||
| 11553 | 2012.08.22 2012.08.23 |
9 | 16 | 10 | S21W47 | 0180 | DAO | DSC |
 |
 |
area: 0330 location: S21W43 |
| 11554 | 2012.08.23 2012.08.24 |
9 | 4 | 3 | N15W79 | 0160 | DAO | DSO |
 |
 |
|
| 11555 | 2012.08.24 2012.08.25 |
4 | 11 | 6 | N08W12 | 0030 | CSO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| S1876 | 2012.08.25 | N16W46 | plage | ||||||||
| S1880 | 2012.08.26 | N28W58 | plage | ||||||||
| 11557 | 2012.08.27 | N17W16 | plage | ||||||||
| 11558 | 2012.08.27 | 6 | 3 | N13E24 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N17E20 | ||
| S1881 | 2012.08.27 | S19W17 | plage | ||||||||
| S1882 | 2012.08.27 | N23E06 | plage | ||||||||
| 11559 | 2012.08.27 2012.08.28 |
1 | N17E24 | 0010 | AXX | originally AR 11558 | |||||
| S1884 | 2012.08.27 | N13E05 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S1885 | 2012.08.28 | N24W28 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S1886 | 2012.08.28 | N08W37 | plage | ||||||||
| 11560 | 2012.08.29 | 15 | 31 | 18 | N04E09 | 0180 | DAI | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0500 |
| 11561 | 2012.08.29 2012.08.30 |
7 | 8 | 5 | S11E03 | 0040 | DSO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11562 | 2012.08.29 2012.08.30 |
2 | 8 | 5 | S15E40 | 0030 | CRI | DRO |
 |
 |
CRI with 2 spots is impossible |
| S1890 | 2012.08.29 | 1 | S18E17 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11563 | 2012.08.30 | 4 | 10 | 5 | S24E58 | 0040 | DSO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11564 | 2012.08.30 2012.08.31 |
3 | 17 | 8 | S13E70 | 0060 | DAO | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| S1892 | 2012.08.30 | 3 | 1 | N12W43 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S1893 | 2012.08.31 | 3 | 2 | S16W56 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 54 | 118 | 66 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 144 | 238 | 176 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 92 | 145 | 93 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 86 | 83 | 97 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.5 | 47.6 (+5.8) | 8.94 |
| 2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | 53.2 (+5.6) | 8.06 |
| 2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.8 | 57.2 (+4.0) | 8.16 |
| 2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | 59.0 (+1.8) | 7.26 |
| 2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | 59.5 (+0.5) | 12.27 |
| 2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | 59.9 (+0.4) | 8.28 |
| 2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
| 2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) | 8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | (67.3 projected, +0.4) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | (66.5 projected, -0.8) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | (64.4 projected, -2.1) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | (63.6 projected, -0.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | (64.6 projected, +1.0) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.1 | (67.2 projected, +2.6) | 7.53 |
| 2012.09 | (1) | (2A)/ (2B) | (70.0 projected, +2.8) | () |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
