Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on November 25, 2011 at 03:10 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update November 1, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 2, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated November 23, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2114 [August-September 2011] - 2115 [September-October 2011]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 24. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 438 km/s under the influence of a low speed stream from CH485.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 137.2 (increasing 3.3 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 10013112 (planetary), 10013222 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 10 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11352 [S24W38] was quiet and stable.
Region 11353 [N08W22] was quiet and stable.
Region 11354 [S17W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11355 [N14W06] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11356 [N16E17] was quiet. The region appears to be 2 separate regions and a split may soon be required.
Region 11357 [N19W70] was mostly quiet and stable. Flare: C1.2 at 20:21 UTC
Region 11358 [N21E55] developed slowly and was quiet.
New region 11359 [N16W53] emerged in the northeast quadrant on Nov.19 and was numbered by SWPC on Nov.24 when larger spots appeared. There's some polarity intermixing

Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1335] rotated into view at the northeast limb on November 24. Location at midnight: N20E75
[S1336] emerged in the northeast quadrant on November 24. Location at midnight: N18E32

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 23-24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
November 22: A filament eruption between regions 11356 and 11355 began near 06:24 UTC and caused a weak partial halo CME as observed by SOHO/LASCO.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A coronal hole (CH486) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on November 26-27. A poorly defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on November 25.

The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 25-27. On Nov.26 there's a possibility of weak CME effects from the CME observed on Nov.22. A coronal hole related disturbance could start on November 28 and last until Nov.30 with occasional unsettled and active intervals.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)

 

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
11350 2011.11.14     N25W67           plage
11352 2011.11.15
2011.11.16
1 5 S26W39 0070 HSX CSO

location: S24W38

S1327 2011.11.16     S25W54           plage
11354 2011.11.16
2011.11.17
8 6 S17W23 0040 DAO CRO  
11353 2011.11.16
2011.11.17
1 6 N07W23 0010 AXX HRX  
11355 2011.11.17
2011.11.18
12 11 N10W06 0120 CSO CSO

area: 0220

location: N14W06

11357 2011.11.17
2011.11.20
7 9 N17W68 0060 DAI DRI location: N19W70

area: 0030

S1332 2011.11.18     N24W01           plage
11356 2011.11.19 16 27 N15E16 0310 EHI ESI

beta-gamma

location: N16E17

area: 0450

S1333 2011.11.19     N11W31           plage
11359 2011.11.19
2011.11.24
7 9 N16W52 0020 CAO DAO

beta-gamma

11358 2011.11.22 7 14 N19E53 0120 DSI DSI area: 0200

location: N21E55

S1335 2011.11.24   1 N20E75 0010   HRX    
S1336 2011.11.24   4 N16E17 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 59 92  
Sunspot number: 139 192  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Classification adjusted SN: 99 129  (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 83 86  k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1) for STAR SDO

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.7 (+0.3) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.7) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 19.6 (+2.2) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 36.9 (+3.5) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 41.8 (+4.9) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 (47.4 predicted, +5.6) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 (52.5 predicted, +5.1) 8.96 / 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.9 (58.2 predicted, +5.7) 9.14 / 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 (63.7 predicted, +5.5) 8.16 / 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 (67.0 predicted, +3.3) 12.80 / 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 (70.5 predicted, +3.5) 7.52
2011.11  157.5 (1) 108.7 (2A) / 135.9 (2B) (74.9 predicted, +4.4) (4.27)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.