Last major update issued on November 18, 2011 at 05:25 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2114 [August-September 2011] - 2115 [September-October 2011]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 17. Solar wind speed ranged between 376 and 475 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 147.7 (decreasing 20.1 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.8). Three hour interval K indices: 00201011 (planetary), 01311211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11341 [N10W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11342 [N16W86] was quiet and stable.
Region 11343 [N29W65] was quiet and stable.
Region 11346 [S17W02] was mostly quiet and stable. Flare: C2.6 at 01:33 UTC
Region 11347 [N09W09] decayed and was quiet.
Region 11350 [N26E31] was quiet and lost the mature penumbra on both polarities.
Region 11352 [S23E56] was mostly quiet and stable. Flare: C3.1 at 14:00 UTC
New region 11353 [N08E76] rotated into view at the northeast limb on Nov.16 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 11354 [S15E73] rotated partly into view at the southeast limb on Nov.16 and got an SWPC the following day.
Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1327] emerged in the southeast quadrant on November 16. Location at midnight: S17E26
[S1330] rotated partly into view at the northeast limb on November 17. Location at midnight: N15E86
[S1331] emerged in the northeast quadrant on November 17. Location at midnight: N20E32
Several of the flares recorded during the day had an origin at or just behind the northeast limb. For instance the C6.0 flare at 07:27 UTC was produced by this very active region (and not by 11346 which was the source according to SWPC). This region obviously has M class flare potential.
A filament eruption was observed in the southwestern quadrant starting at 15:35 UTC in AIA 193 images. The associated CME does not appear to have any Earth directed component. A large eruption behind the northeast limb late in the day was the source of a CME observed late on Nov.17 and early on Nov.18.
November 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are near Earth facing positions.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 17-19.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|11351||2011.11.14||S24E09||region should be deleted, was trailing spots of region 11346|
|Total spot count:||21||68|
|Sunspot number:||111||188||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Classification adjusted SN:||66||107||(Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||67||85||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1) for STAR SDO|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||16.7 (+0.3)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||17.4 (+0.7)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||19.6 (+2.2)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||23.2 (+3.6)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.5||26.5 (+3.3)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.4||28.8 (+2.3)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||31.0 (+2.2)||4.32 / 5.51|
|2011.02||94.6||29.4||33.4 (+2.4)||5.41 / 6.44|
|2011.03||115.0||56.2||36.9 (+3.5)||7.79 / 8.18|
|2011.04||112.6||54.4||41.8 (+4.9)||9.71 / 8.83|
|2011.05||95.8||41.6||(47.4 predicted, +5.6)||9.18 / 8.94|
|2011.06||95.8||37.0||(52.5 predicted, +5.1)||8.96 / 8.06|
|2011.07||94.2||43.9||(58.2 predicted, +5.7)||9.14 / 8.16|
|2011.08||101.7||50.6||(63.7 predicted, +5.5)||8.16 / 7.26|
|2011.09||133.8||78.0||(67.0 predicted, +3.3)||12.80 / 12.27|
|2011.10||137.3||88.0||(70.5 predicted, +3.5)||7.52|
|2011.11||164.4 (1)||79.3 (2A) / 139.9 (2B)||(74.9 predicted, +4.4)||(4.46)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.