Last major update issued on May 3, 2011 at 04:30 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation
2107 [Feb.-March
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The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on May 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 575 and 766 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH446.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 109.8 (increasing 0.6 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.5). Three hour interval K indices: 35433333 (planetary), 34433323 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted regions.
Region 11200 developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11201 was quiet and stable.
Region 11203 was quiet and stable.
New region 11204 emerged near the northeast limb on April 30 and was
numbered by NOAA/SWPC two days later. The region developed on May 2 and could
produce C flares.
New region 11205 rotated into view at the northeast limb on April 30 and
was noticed by NOAA/SWPC on May 2. Slow development was observed on May 2.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S980] reemerged with a single spot on May 1 and developed slowly on
May 2. Location at midnight: N22W03
[S985] emerged in the northeast quadrant on April 30.
Location at nidnight: N21W19
[S988] emerged in the northwest quadrant on May 2.
Location at midnight: N12W33
A filament eruption was observed starting near 16h UTC in the southeast quadrant. A small CME was observed off the east limb.
April 30 - May 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days
ago 26
days ago
A poorly defined coronal hole (CH447) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on May 2-3.
The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on May 3 due to effects from CH446. Quiet conditions are likely on May 4 while there is a possibility of unsettled intervals on May 5-6 if a coronal hole stream associatred with CH447 arrives.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11201 | 2011.04.24 2011.04.27 |
5 | N14W29 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N11W23 | ||
| 11200 | 2011.04.25 2011.04.26 |
3 | 16 | S17W37 | 0010 | BXO | CRI |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| S974 | 2011.04.27 | S37W12 | plage | |||||||
| S975 | 2011.04.27 | N18W52 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| 11203 | 2011.04.28 | 4 | 7 | N18E28 | 0100 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N17E26 |
| S976 | 2011.04.28 | N07W07 | plage | |||||||
| S977 | 2011.04.28 | N05W23 | plage | |||||||
| S979 | 2011.04.28 | N28W45 | plage | |||||||
| S980 | 2011.04.29 | 5 | N22W03 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S981 | 2011.04.29 | S46W30 | plage | |||||||
| 11204 | 2011.04.30 2011.05.02 |
3 | 22 | N17E38 | 0050 | CSO | CAI |
 |
 |
formerly region S982 location: N16E40 |
| 11205 | 2011.04.30 2011.05.02 |
1 | 6 | N14E52 | 0000 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
formerly region S983 area: 0010 |
| S984 | 2011.04.30 | S35W41 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S985 | 2011.04.30 | 3 | N21W19 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S986 | 2011.05.01 | S20E23 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S987 | 2011.05.01 | N35W42 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S988 | 2011.05.02 | 2 | N12W33 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 11 | 66 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 51 | 146 | ||||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
| 2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
| 2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | 14.0 (+1.7) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
| 2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | 15.5 (+1.5) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | 16.4 (+0.9) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.7 (+0.3) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.7) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | 19.6 (+2.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | (26.9 predicted, +3.7) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | (30.1 predicted, +3.2) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | (33.1 predicted, +3.0) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | (35.6 predicted, +2.5) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | (37.9 predicted, +2.3) | 7.79 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | (40.8 predicted, +2.9) | 9.71 |
| 2011.05 | 108.0 (1) | 3.5 (2A) / 54.0 (2B) | (44.1 predicted, +3.3) | (19.94) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
