Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on March 23, 2011 at 05:45 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update March 2, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 2, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 2, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update March 1, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level charts since October 2009 - updated March 21, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2106 [Jan.-Feb.2011] - 2107 [Feb.-March 2011] NEW

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 306-363 km/s. After 10h UTC a fairly low speed stream from CH441/442 began to dominate the solar wind.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 99.8 (increasing 10.5 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.9). Three hour interval K indices: 33112101 (planetary), 33223111 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted regions.

Region 11173 was quiet and stable.
Region 11175 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11176 rotated fully into view. Judging by the plage field this must have been a large region while on the backside disk. Although there is polarity intermixing, there's no magnetic delta structure. M flares are possible. Flares: C1.9 at 03:25, C3.9 at 03:37, C1.6 at 22:12 UTC. The region was the soutce of an M1.4 flare at 02:17 on March 23.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S912] This region emerged in the northeast quadrant on March 21 and decayed slightly on March 22. Location at midnight: N10W06
[S914] rotated into view at the northeast limb on March 21. Location at midnight: N20E65
[S915] emerged with a single tiny spot on March 22. Location at midnight: S15E03

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 20-22: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH441) was in an Earth facing position on March 18-19. A coronal hole (CH442) in the northern hemisphere was Earth facing on March 19-20.

The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to quiet to unsettled on March 23-24 due to effects from CH441 and CH442, occasional active intervals are possible. Quiet conditions are likely on March 25.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
11173 2011.03.15
2011.03.16
  3 S29W40 0000   AXX location: S29W38
S908 2011.03.17     N29W38           plage
11175 2011.03.17
2011.03.18
8 9 N11W65 0130 DSO DSO  
S911 2011.03.18     S22W16           plage
11176 2011.03.21 3 14 S14E69 0340 DHO DKO beta-gamma

location: S16E69

S912 2011.03.21   1 N10W06 0000   AXX  
S914 2011.03.21   2 N20E65 0010   AXX  
S915 2011.03.22   1 S15E03 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 11 30  
Sunspot number: 31 90  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2009.12 76.7 10.8 8.3 (+0.7) 1.41 / 1.92
2010.01 81.1 13.2 9.3 (+1.0) 2.93 / 3.07
2010.02 84.7 18.8 10.6 (+1.3) 4.15 / 4.61
2010.03 83.4 15.4 12.3 (+1.7) 4.58 / 4.65
2010.04 75.9 8.0 14.0 (+1.7) 10.22 / 10.24
2010.05 73.8 8.7 15.5 (+1.5) 9.18 / 8.15
2010.06 72.5 13.6 16.4 (+0.9) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.8 (+0.4) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.6) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 (19.1 predicted, +1.7) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 (21.7 predicted, +2.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.6 (24.5 predicted, +2.8) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.5 (26.9 predicted, +2.4) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 (29.0 predicted, +2.1) 4.32
2011.02 94.6 29.4 (31.1 predicted, +2.1) 5.41
2011.03 115.6 (1) 54.1 (2A) / 76.2 (2B) (33.0 predicted, +1.9) (9.38)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.