Last major update issued on March 9, 2011 at 05:10 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation
2105
[Dec-Jan.2011] - 2106
[Jan.-Feb.2011] NEW
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 8.
Solar flux measured at 17h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 149.9 (the observations at 20 and 23h could not be used as they were enhanced by a long duration M1.4 event in region S891. Despite the presence of one valid measurement SWPC chose to estimate solar flux to 155). The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21112112 (planetary), 21211211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted regions.
Region 11164 returned to a quiet state, however, the region remains
capable of producing a major flare.
Region 11166 was quiet and developed further adding many spots. There is
some polarity intermixing, with no obvious magnetic delta structures. A major flare is possible.
Region 11169 developed slowly and could produce C flares.
New region 11170 emerged in the southwest quadrant on March 7 and was
numbered the next day by NOAA/SWPC.
Flare: C4.7 at 09:35 UTC.
New region 11171 emerged in an old plage area.
Flare: M1.5 at 03:58 (associated with type
II and IV radio sweeps and a CME off the east limb) UTC.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
Region S891 rotated out of view at the southwest limb but is still the
region with the highest flare potential.
Flares: C4.7 at 00:19, M1.3/1N at 02:29,
C5.5 at 05:08, major M5.3/1F at 10:44, M4.4 at 18:28, long duration M1.4 peaking
at 20:17, C7.7 at 23:14 and C8.8 at 23:37 UTC.
[S896] Spots emerged in the northeast quadrant, just north of region
11166, on March 6. The region decayed slowly on March 8 and lost the trailing
spot.
Location at midnight: N16W07.
[S900] Tiny spots emerged in an old plage area in the southeastern
quadrant on March 8. Location at midnight: S20E26.
[S901] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on March 8. Location
at midnight: S22W14.
March 6 and 8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
March 7: A partial halo CME was observed following a long duration (LDE)
event in region 11166. This CME could reach Earth on March 9/10, however, it
will highly likely be overtaken by the very fast CME produced by the M3.7 LDE in
region 11164 late in the day. This CME could reach Earth on March 9 and cause
unsettled to major storm conditions.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No significant coronal holes are currently in or near an Earth facing position.
The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm on March 9-10 due to CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on March 11.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
11164 | 2011.02.25 | 23 | 27 | N23W71 | 0580 | EKC | EKC | beta-gamma-delta | ||
11165 | 2011.02.26 2011.02.25 |
5 | S18W92 | 0200 | EKI | rotated out of view SWPC has included S891 in this region location: S23W89 |
||||
11166 | 2011.03.02 | 35 | 67 | N11W01 | 0550 | FKC | EHC | beta-gamma location: N08E02 |
||
11167 | 2011.03.02 2011.03.03 |
1 | N13W36 | 0010 | AXX | spotless location: N14W33 |
||||
S891 | 2011.03.03 | S17W95 | rotated out of view | |||||||
S893 | 2011.03.03 | N20W43 | plage | |||||||
11169 | 2011.03.05 2011.03.06 |
11 | 32 | N19E31 | 0170 | DSO | DAI |
beta-gamma |
||
S895 | 2011.03.05 | N07W27 | plage | |||||||
S896 | 2011.03.06 | 2 | N16W07 | 0010 | AXX | |||||
11170 | 2011.03.07 2011.03.08 |
2 | 9 | S26W68 | 0030 | BXO | DRO | formerly region S897 | ||
S898 | 2011.03.07 | S13E24 | plage | |||||||
S899 | 2011.03.07 | N19W17 | plage | |||||||
11171 | 2011.03.08 | 2 | S19E69 | 0000 | AXX | location of spots: S22E49 | ||||
S900 | 2011.03.08 | 4 | S20E26 | 0000 | BXO | |||||
S901 | 2011.03.08 | 1 | S22W14 | 0000 | AXX | |||||
Total spot count: | 77 | 144 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 137 | 224 |
Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
2009.12 | 76.7 | 10.8 | 8.3 (+0.7) | 1.41 / 1.92 |
2010.01 | 81.1 | 13.2 | 9.3 (+1.0) | 2.93 / 3.07 |
2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | 14.0 (+1.7) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | 15.5 (+1.5) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | 16.4 (+0.9) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.8 (+0.4) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.6) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | (19.1 predicted, +1.7) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | (21.7 predicted, +2.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.6 | (24.5 predicted, +2.8) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.5 | (26.9 predicted, +2.4) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | (29.0 predicted, +2.1) | 4.32 |
2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | (31.1 predicted, +2.1) | 5.41 |
2011.03 | 131.3 (1) | 26.5 (2A) / 102.6 (2B) | (33.0 predicted, +1.9) | (11.89) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number
(accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary
daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on
the
official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.