Last major update issued on June 15, 2011 at 04:40 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated
daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update June 1, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update June 1, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
24 (last update June 1, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update June
1, 2011)]
[POES auroral activity level charts since October
2009 - updated June 11, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation
2109 [April-May
2011] - 2110 [May-June
2011] NEW
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
June 11, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 425 and 556 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH455.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 99.3 (increasing 8.7 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3). Three hour interval K indices: 22231112 (planetary), 22241112 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 5 spotted regions.
Region 11234 developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 11235 was quiet and stable.
New region 11236 rotated into view at the northeast limb on June 13 and
was numbered the next day by NOAA/SWPC. The region is complex and has a weak
magnetic delta structure in the southernmost penumbra. Further M class flaring
is possible. Flares: C1.8 at 00:41, C2.2 at
11:29 and M1.3 at 21:47 UTC.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1060] emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 11. Location at
midnight: N18E09
[S1064] emerged in the southeast quadrant on June 13. Location at
midnight: S16E38
A partial halo CME was observed after 07h UTC following a large filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant.
June 12-14: No obviously earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A small coronal hole (CH456) in the northern hemisphere near the equator was Earth facing on June 13. A large, recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH457) is rotating into view near the east limb and will likely become Earth facing on June 20-21.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 15 due to effects from CH455. Effects from CH456 could reach Earth on June 16 and cause some unsettled intervals that day and on June 17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| S1049 | 2011.06.06 | S18W84 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S1052 | 2011.06.07 | N11W33 | plage | |||||||
| 11234 | 2011.06.08 2011.06.09 |
9 | 24 | S15W07 | 0040 | DSO | CAI |
 |
 |
|
| 11235 | 2011.06.10 2011.06.11 |
3 | 4 | N14W15 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N14W11 |
| S1057 | 2011.06.10 | S23W19 | plage | |||||||
| S1059 | 2011.06.11 | N37W53 | plage | |||||||
| S1060 | 2011.06.11 | 1 | N22W13 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S1061 | 2011.06.12 | S02W10 | plage | |||||||
| 11236 | 2011.06.13 2011.06.14 |
6 | 23 | N17E64 | 0180 | DSO | EHO |
 |
 |
formerly region S1062 location: N16E72 area: 0500 beta-delta |
| S1063 | 2011.06.13 | N33E24 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S1064 | 2011.06.13 | 1 | S17E22 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S1065 | 2011.06.13 | N17W00 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S1066 | 2011.06.13 | N44W23 |
 |
plage reversed polarities |
||||||
| S1067 | 2011.06.14 | N50E14 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| Total spot count: | 18 | 53 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 48 | 103 | ||||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
| 2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
| 2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | 14.0 (+1.7) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
| 2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | 15.5 (+1.5) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | 16.4 (+0.9) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.7 (+0.3) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.7) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | 19.6 (+2.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | 26.5 (+3.3) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | (29.4 predicted, +2.9) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | (32.6 predicted, +3.2) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | (35.2 predicted, +2.6) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | (37.5 predicted, +2.3) | 7.79 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | (40.4 predicted, +2.9) | 9.71 |
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | (43.7 predicted, +3.3) | 9.18 |
| 2011.06 | 96.7 (1) | 30.2 (2A) / 64.9 (2B) | (47.4 predicted, +3.7) | (10.73) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
