Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on July 14, 2011 at 05:15 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update July 2, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update July 2, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update July 2, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update July 2, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level charts since October 2009 - updated July 11, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2110 [May-June 2011] - 2111 [June-July 2011] NEW
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 459 and 690 km/s under the influence of high speed streams from CH464 and CH465.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 94.6 (decreasing 8.7 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.3). Three hour interval K indices: 32212232 (planetary), 33122122 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted regions.

Region 11245 was quiet and stable.
Region 11247 decayed and had a single tiny spot at the end of the UTC day.
Region 11249 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11250 was quiet and stable.
Region 11251 was quiet and stable.
New region 11252 rotated into view at the northeast limb on July 12 and was numbered the next day by NOAA/SWPC.
New region 11253 emerged in the northwest quadrant on July 13.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1108] emerged in the northeast quadrant on July 10. Location at midnight: N22W12
[S1112] emerged in the northeast quadrant on July 11. Location at midnight: N08E23
[S1113] rotated into view at the northeast limb on July 12. Location at midnight: N15E59
[S1116] rotated into view at the southeast limb on July 13. Location at midnight: S23E77

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 12-13: No obviously earth directed CMEs were observed.
July 11
: A small CME was observed after a C2.6 flare in region 11249. The CME could reach Earth late on July 13.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH465) was Earth facing on July 10-11. A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH466) will likely become Earth facing on July 16-17.

The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on July 14 due to a coronal hole stream and a possible CME impact. Quiet to unsettled is likely on July 15.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
11247 2011.07.03
2011.07.08
1 1 S18W54 0010 HSX AXX

location: S19W60

area: 0000

S1101 2011.07.06     S14W44           plage
11245 2011.07.06
2011.07.07
1 4 N15W23 0010 HSX BXO

location: N14W22

11248 2011.07.06
2011.07.08
    N20W16           plage
11249 2011.07.07
2011.07.09
2 2 S16W31 0010 AXX BXO

location: S18W26

area: 0000

S1105 2011.07.09     N15W44           plage
11250 2011.07.10 9 14 S27E04 0170 DSO CSI location: S28E07
11251 2011.07.10
2011.07.11
1 3 N17E42 0160 HSX CSO

location: N15E46

S1108 2011.07.10   1 N22W12 0000   AXX  
S1110 2011.07.10     S28W07           plage
S1111 2011.07.10     S06W40           plage
S1112 2011.07.11   3 N08E23 0000   AXX  
S1113 2011.07.12   3 N15E59 0000   AXX  
11252 2011.07.12
2011.07.13
3 4 N25E62 0030 CSO BXO formerly region S1114

location: N24E71

S1115 2011.07.12     N16E09         plage
S1116 2011.07.13   5 S23E77 0030   CRO    
11253 2011.07.13 3 2 N14W12 0010 BXO BXO   area: 0000
Total spot count: 20 42  
Sunspot number: 90 152  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.04 75.9 8.0 14.0 (+1.7) 10.22 / 10.24
2010.05 73.8 8.7 15.5 (+1.5) 9.18 / 8.15
2010.06 72.5 13.6 16.4 (+0.9) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.7 (+0.3) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.7) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 19.6 (+2.2) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 (30.6 predicted, +1.8) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 (32.6 predicted, +2.0) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 (35.2 predicted, +2.6) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 (38.1 predicted, +2.9) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 (41.4 predicted, +3.3) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 (45.2 predicted, +3.8) 8.96
2011.07 87.6 (1) 22.9 (2A) / 54.6 (2B) (49.4 predicted, +4.1) (9.88)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.