Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on August 18, 2011 at 04:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update August 2, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update August 2, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update August 2, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update August 2, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated August 14, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2111 [June-July 2011]  - 2112 [July 2011] NEW
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 17. Solar wind speed ranged between 374 and 445 km/s under the decreasing influence of a high speed stream from CH471.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 97.5 (increasing 1.5 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.4). Three hour interval K indices: 31212111 (planetary), 31312121 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11271 was mostly unchanged and currently is relatively simple structured magnetically. Occasional C flares are possible. Flare: C3.4 at 10:42 UTC
Region 11272 was unstable and could produce further C class flares. Flares: long duration C1.9 peaking at 02:54, long duration C2.3 peaking at 04:29, C2.6 at 16:31 UTC
New region 11273 emerged in the southeast quadrant on August 16 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region has polarity intermixing.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1171] emerged near the northeast limb on August 16. Location at midnight: N07E60
[S1173] emerged in the northeast quadrant on August 17. Location at midnight: N23E37
[S1174] emerged in the southwest quadrant on August 17. Location at  midnight: S17W28

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A coronal hole (CH472) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on August 19-21.

The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on August 18-21.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
S1157 2011.08.07     S20W55           plage
S1159 2011.08.09     N16W46           plage
11270 2011.08.10
2011.08.11
    N23W27         plage
S1162 2011.08.10     S23W52           plage
11269 2011.08.10
2011.08.11
    S21W65           plage
S1164 2011.08.13     S30W46           plage
S1165 2011.08.13     S27W23         plage
S1166 2011.08.13     N10W38           plage
S1167 2011.08.13     N10W24           plage
11271 2011.08.14
2011.08.15
9 24 N16E50 0240 ESI ESI

location: N15E52

11272 2011.08.15
2011.08.16
2 7 S19E55 0060 CSO CSO

location: S22E58

S1170 2011.08.15     N05W02           plage
S1171 2011.08.16   2 N07E60 0000   AXX  
11273 2011.08.16
2011.08.17
3 6 S18W03 0010 BXO CRO formerly region S1172
S1173 2011.08.17   1 N23E39 0000   AXX    
S1174 2011.08.17   1 S17W28 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 14 41  
Sunspot number: 44 101  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Classification adjusted SN: 24 54  (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 26 33  k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.33 for STAR SDO

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.05 73.8 8.7 15.5 (+1.5) 9.18 / 8.15
2010.06 72.5 13.6 16.4 (+0.9) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.7 (+0.3) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.7) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 19.6 (+2.2) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 (33.6 predicted, +2.6) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 (36.6 predicted, +3.0) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 (39.4 predicted, +2.8) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 (42.7 predicted, +3.3) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 (46.5 predicted, +3.8) 8.96
2011.07 94.2 43.9 (50.6 predicted, +4.1) 9.14
2011.08 100.9 (1) 32.2 (2A) / 58.8 (2B) (54.8 predicted, +4.2) (10.84)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.