Last major update issued on June 10, 2010 at 04:30 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 287 and 389 km/s. A weak coronal hole based disturbance is in progress early on June 10.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 71.5. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11111212 (planetary), 11111212 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk.
Region 11078 added penumbral area but appears to be magnetically less
complex. C flares are possible. The region has reversed polarities and
minor polarity intermixing.
New region 11079 emerged in the southwest quadrant on June 8 and was numbered the following day by NOAA/SWPC. Slow development was observed on June 9.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S777] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on June 9. Location at midnight: S23W26
June 7-9: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH408) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on June 12-13.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on June 10. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 10 and quiet on June 11-12.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||SWPC
|11078||2010.06.08||6||9||S21W60||0180||DSI||classification was DAI at midnight
|11079||2010.06.09||2||1||S26W36||0010||BXO||formerly region S776
classification was AXX at midnight
|Total spot count:||8||12|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.07||68.2||3.2||3.6 (+0.9)||5.49 / 4.55|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.1 (+1.3)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.0 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.6)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||(8.2 predicted, +0.6)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.1||(9.2 predicted, +1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.6||(10.7 predicted, +1.5)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||(12.5 predicted, +1.8)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||7.9||(14.1 predicted, +1.6)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.8||(15.4 predicted, +1.3)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||71.5 (1)||5.2 (2)||(16.9 predicted, +1.5)||(8.17)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Current impact on the monthly SSN based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.