Last major update issued on January 21, 2010 at 05:00 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports (last update January 3, 2010)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minot storm on January 20. Solar wind speed ranged between 273 and 575 km/s. A high speed stream from CH389 was observed beginning at ACE near 09h UTC. This stream arrived significantly later than predicted.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 81.7. The planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.8). Three hour interval K indices: 10102544 (planetary), 10212433 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk.
Region 11041 was very active and appeared to be decaying towards the end of the day. The region is surprisingly small and must have been more complex prior to rotating into view. Flares: C4.0 at 00:22, C1.7 at 02:53, C5.0 at 04:57, C3.9 at 06:18, M1.0 at 07:27, M1.6 at 07:49, C3.7 at 09:29, M1.8 at 10:59, C3.9 at 12:32, C1.3 at 13:25, C2.2 at 15:20, C1.0 at 17:33 and M3.4 at 17:55 UTC.
January 18-20: No partially or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earyh facing positions.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:17 UTC on January 21. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 21 and quiet on January 22-23.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||6||4|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average Ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2009.07||68.2||3.5||(3.5 predicted, +0.8)||5.49|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||(4.4 predicted, +0.9)||5.70|
|2009.09||70.5||4.2||(5.4 predicted, +1.0)||3.88|
|2009.10||72.6||4.6||(6.5 predicted, +1.1)||3.66|
|2009.11||73.6||4.2||(7.7 predicted, +1.2)||2.45|
|2009.12||76.7||10.6||(9.1 predicted, +1.4)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||82.1 (1)||12.9 (2)||(10.1 predicted, +1.0)||(2.8)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on official NGDC records.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.