Last major update issued on January 20, 2010 at 04:15 UTC. Minor update posted at 17:40 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on January 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 297 and 368 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 84.2. The planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.3). Three hour interval K indices: 10000001 (planetary), 10011110 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless.
Region 11041 is at the southeast limb and should rotate into view today. This is likely a complex region and could produce further M class flares, maybe even a major flare. Flares: C5.2 at 08:45, C4.9 at 09:06, C1.1 at 10:29, M2.3 at 13:41, C2.3 at 15:36, C5.1 at 17:55, M1.7 at 20:35, C4.5 at 22:33 and C2.2 at 23:26 UTC.
Update added at 17:40 UTC: Region 11041 has been very active today with 3 minor M class flares and many C flares. A medium high speed coronal hole stream arrived at ACE around 09h UTC. Active to minor storm conditions are currently observed.
January 16-18: No partially or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earyh facing positions.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 23:48 UTC on January 19. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 20-23.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|11041||2010.01.19||S27E90||not yet in view|
|Total spot count:||0||0|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average Ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2009.07||68.2||3.5||(3.5 predicted, +0.8)||5.49|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||(4.4 predicted, +0.9)||5.70|
|2009.09||70.5||4.2||(5.4 predicted, +1.0)||3.88|
|2009.10||72.6||4.6||(6.5 predicted, +1.1)||3.66|
|2009.11||73.6||4.2||(7.7 predicted, +1.2)||2.45|
|2009.12||76.7||10.6||(9.1 predicted, +1.4)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||82.1 (1)||12.4 (2)||(10.1 predicted, +1.0)||(2.22)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on official NGDC records.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.