Last major update issued on December 31, 2010 at 06:25 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 291 and 365 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 82.9 (down 3.9 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.6). Three hour interval K indices: 00111321 (planetary), 00222311 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 4 spotted regions.
Region 11138 decayed slowly and could become spotless before rotating out of view.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S854] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant near the central meridian on December 30. Location at midnight: S25W07
[S855] A new region emerged quickly late in the day in the northern hemisphere near the central meridian. Location at midnight: N35E02. At 04 UTC on December 31 the region had penumbra and an area of 0050.
[S856] A large spot is rotating into view at the northeast limb. Location at midnight: N33E82
December 28-30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH431) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on January 4. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH432) will probably become Earth facing on January 5.
The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on December 31 - January 2.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
|11138||2010.12.27||3||2||N12W55||0020||HRX||AXX||the base image source is SOHO/MDI continuum|
the base image source is SOHO/MDI continuum
|S854||2010.12.30||2||S25W07||0010||BXO||the base image source is SOHO/MDI continuum|
|S855||2010.12.30||2||N35E02||0000||AXX||the base image source is SOHO/MDI continuum|
|S856||2010.12.30||1||N33E82||0170||HSX||the base image source is SOHO/MDI continuum|
|Total spot count:||4||7|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.2 (+1.4)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.1 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.5)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||8.3 (+0.7)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.2||9.3 (+1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||15.5 (+1.5)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||(16.9 predicted, +1.4)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||(18.4 predicted, +1.5)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||(19.6 predicted, +1.2)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||(20.8 predicted, +1.2)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||(23.2 predicted, +2.4)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.6||(26.1 predicted, +2.9)||4.80|
|2010.12||84.0 (1)||20.5 (2A) / 21.2 (2B)||(28.6 predicted, +2.5)||(3.39)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.