Last major update issued on December 29, 2010 at 05:25 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update December 3, 2010)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update
December 3, 2010)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update
December 3, 2010)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports from January 2003 (last update December
3, 2010)]
[POES auroral activity level
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[Annotated geomagnetic
activity chart - Carrington rotation 2104 - NEW]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on December 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 304 and 404 km/s. A CME observed on December 23 was the likely source of a brief and significant increase in geomagnetic activity after 10h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 80.7 (down 5.8 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00015431 (planetary), 11125432 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 2 spotted regions.
Region 11137 was quiet and mostly unchanged.
Region 11138 developed early in the day, then decayed slowly.
A small warm plage area has rotated into view near the southeast limb. A single, tiny spot was observed earlier in the day and early on December 29.
December 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 29 and quiet on December 30-31.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered | Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500 image |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11137 | 2010.12.25 | 1 | N18W16 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
due to SDO/AIA data lag the base image source is SOHO/MDI continuum | ||
| 11138 | 2010.12.27 | 9 | 8 | N13W26 | 0060 | DAI | CRO |
 |
 |
the base image source is SOHO/MDI continuum |
| Total spot count: | 9 | 9 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 19 | 29 | ||||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
|
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 | |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) | |
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2009.09 | 70.5 | 4.3 | 6.2 (+1.4) | 3.88 / 3.61 |
| 2009.10 | 72.6 | 4.8 | 7.1 (+0.9) | 3.66 / 3.56 |
| 2009.11 | 73.6 | 4.1 | 7.6 (+0.5) | 2.45 / 2.63 |
| 2009.12 | 76.7 | 10.8 | 8.3 (+0.7) | 1.41 / 1.92 |
| 2010.01 | 81.1 | 13.2 | 9.3 (+1.0) | 2.93 / 3.07 |
| 2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
| 2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
| 2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | 14.0 (+1.7) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
| 2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | 15.5 (+1.5) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | (16.9 predicted, +1.4) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | (18.4 predicted, +1.5) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | (19.6 predicted, +1.2) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | (20.8 predicted, +1.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | (23.2 predicted, +2.4) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.6 | (26.1 predicted, +2.9) | 4.80 |
| 2010.12 | 84.1 (1) | 18.9 (2A) / 20.9 (2B) | (28.6 predicted, +2.5) | (3.36) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number
(accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the
daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on
the
official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
