Last major update issued on September 4, 2007 at 04:40 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on September 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 567 and 692 km/s (average speed was 603 km/s, increasing 35 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH288.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 68.0. The planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.5). Three hour interval K indices: 33233222 (planetary), 33334212 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10970 decayed further and could soon become spotless.
September 1-3: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH289) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on September 2.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 01:25 UTC on September 4. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: September 4: The best TA signals early in the night were from Argentina and Uruguay with some stations from Brazil doing well too. From North America only the often heard stations from the Canadian Atlantic provinces and northeastern USA were audible with fairly weak signals.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on September 4-5 while a high speed stream from CH289 could cause a few unsettled and active intervals on September 6.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10970||2007.09.01||5||3||S07W34||0030||BXOO||area was 0010 at midnight|
|Total spot count:||5||3|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2007.03||72.2||4.8||(11.1 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.04||72.4||3.7||(10.7 predicted, -0.4)|
|2007.05||74.4||11.7||(10.2 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.06||73.7||12.0||(10.0 predicted, -0.2)|
|2007.07||71.6||10.0||(10.0 predicted, +0.0)|
|2007.08||69.1||6.2||(10.3 predicted, +0.3)|
|2007.09||69.4 (1)||1.8 (2)||(11.5 predicted, +1.2)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.