Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 30, 2007 at 05:40 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to severe storm on January 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 710 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH256.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 86.7. The planetary A index was 36 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 36.5). Three hour interval K indices: 32326753 (planetary), 22435533 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day.

Region 10940 developed further and has M class flare potential. Flares: C3.4 at 16:56 and C1.5 at 22:49 UTC.
New region 10941 rotated into view at the southeast limb on January 28 and was numbered the next day by NOAA/SEC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 27-29: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH256) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 26-28.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on January 30. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on January 30 and quiet to active on January 31 due to a high speed stream from CH256. February 1-2 should see quiet to unsettled conditions.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Monitoring has been temporarily suspended (as of January 1, 2007).

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.