Last major update issued on January 12, 2007 at 04:30 UTC. The next update will be on January 15.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 408 and 572 km/s (all day average 491 km/s - increasing 80 km/s compared to the previous day) under the influence of a weak coronal hole stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 83.9. The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.5). Three hour interval K indices: 12212211 (planetary), 12323321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A single C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10933 rotated to the west limb.
Flare: C1.0 at 01:04 UTC.
Region 10935 decayed slowly slowly and quietly.
Region 10937 decayed slowly and was quiet.
January 9-11: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH255) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on January 12-14.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on January 12. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 12 and quiet on January 13-14. A high speed stream from CH255 will likely cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on January 15-17.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Monitoring has been temporarily suspended (as of January 1, 2007).
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10933||2006.12.30||2||1||S05W84||0100||HHX||classification was HSX at midnight|
|10935||2007.01.03||1||1||S08W54||0160||HHX||classification was HSX at midnight|
|10936||2007.01.06||1||N10W24||SEC mistakenly has this at N14W04 where another region had a single spot for a few hours.|
|10937||2007.01.08||1||1||S14W36||0020||HSX||classification was HRX at midnight|
|Total spot count:||5||3|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(15.0 predicted, -1.3)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(14.9 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(14.7 predicted, -0.2)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(13.5 predicted, -1.2)|
|2006.11||86.3||21.5||(12.1 predicted, -1.4)|
|2006.12||84.5||13.6||(11.7 predicted, -0.4)|
|2007.01||87.4 (1)||14.4 (2)||(11.9 predicted, +0.2)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.