Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 4, 2007 at 04:45 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 574 and 794 km/s (all day average 676 km/s - increasing 107 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH254.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 81.3. The planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.1). Three hour interval K indices: 24344433 (planetary), 24344423 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10933 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10934 was quiet and stable.
New region 10935 rotated into view at the southeast limb on January 1 and was numbered by NOAA/SEC two days later. The region was quiet and stable.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 1-3: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH254) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on December 30-31.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 09:36 UTC on January 3. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 4 due to a high speed stream from CH254 and mostly quiet on January 5-9.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Monitoring has been temporarily suspended (as of January 1, 2007).

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.